Would Stannis Baratheon Have Succeeded If His Army Had Not Deserted in Game of Thrones Season 5?

Game of Thrones is known for its complex and multi-layered narratives, often leading to compelling what-ifs. One such scenario revolves around Stannis Baratheon's army. If half of his soldiers had not abandoned him, would he have had a fair chance at succeeding against the Boltons?

Analysis of Stannis' Defeat

Stannis Baratheon's defeat in the North was multifaceted. Primarily, the desertion of a significant portion of his army was a critical factor. This desertion not only deprived Stannis of a large number of soldiers but also all of his siege weapons, horses, and cavalry. This imbalance was exacerbated by the Bolton army's mountaineer contingent, which included heavy cavalry, giving Stannis' forces an overwhelming advantage in infantry versus mounted combat.

Defeat Caused by Desertion

During the final battle against the Boltons, Stannis' army was predominantly composed of foot soldiers, whereas the Boltons had a significant mounted contingent. The loss of horses and cavalry not only crippled Stannis' mobility but also denied him superior battlefield tactics, effectively neutralizing his main tactical advantage.

Other Factors Contributing to Stannis' Defeat

Beyond the desertion, other factors contributed to Stannis' ultimate failure. The terrible weather and low morale played a significant role in the morale of his troops. Furthermore, Ramsey's sabotage and the burning of Shireen also tarnished the cause and morale of Stannis' army. These external factors further diminished his chances of successfully assaulting Winterfell.

The Writers' Intent

Some argue that the writers, notably George R.R. Martin, deliberately set up Stannis to fail. His character, as the show's creators would have it, is a proud and rigid leader who overestimates his chances. This intentional failure serves to illustrate the themes of pride, leadership, and the consequences of misplaced confidence.

Counterfactual Scenario Analysis

Assuming that Stannis did not desert, and his army remained intact, the outcome might have been significantly different. With his cavalry intact and a larger infantry force, Stannis might have had the opportunity to engage the Boltons in open battles, even if they were numerically superior.

However, such a scenario would still be challenging. The Boltons, with their formidable forces, would have been a daunting opponent regardless of Stannis' armament. Additionally, the show's plot would have been altered drastically, potentially leading to a different interpretation of the "Prince that Was Promised." Stannis’ failure allowed Jon Snow to rise in prominence and set the stage for him to become the king in the North.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Stannis Baratheon's ultimate fate in the story is a complex interplay of plot devices and character-driven narratives. While the absence of desertion might have given him a fairer chance in battle, the broader narrative objectives of the show and the authors' intentions mean that his failure is an integral part of the story's development. The counterfactual analysis highlights the intricate layers of Game of Thrones' storytelling.