Would Robert's Rebellion Still Have Happened if Aerys Told Jon Arryn to Discard His Foster Sons?

The intricate web of medieval politics in Westeros is full of pivotal moments that could drastically alter the course of history. One such critical juncture is the timing and circumstances leading up to Robert's Rebellion. Many scholars and fans of George R.R. Martin's A Song of Ice and Fire series have debated the likelihood of the rebellion had Aerys II Targaryen, the King on the Iron Throne, told Jon Arryn, the Hand of the King, to discard his foster sons, Jon Snow and Benjen Stark.

The Precedents: The Stark Lie and Vander's Betrayal

At the heart of Robert's Rebellion is the abduction of Lyanna Stark by Rhaegar Targaryen, the future king. This wasn't just an isolated event but part of a larger web of deception and betrayal. Jon Arryn was appointed as Hand of the King partly to restore order and stability. However, his decision not to heed Aerys's commands to dispose of his foster sons, Jon Snow and Benjen Stark, was a pivotal moment.

Aerys's demand to Jon Arryn was complex: he wanted Jon to get rid of his foster sons, effectively ensuring that Elia Martell, Aerys's wife, would have a male heir. In refusing, Jon Arryn set in motion a chain of events that not only instigated rebellion but also set the stage for the loss of House Arryn's support for the crown.

The Forces of Rebellion

Even without the direct command from Aerys, the nobles of the realm were already frustrated and discontent with the Targaryen rule. Aerys's madness and his actions, such as executing Rickard and Brandon Stark, had incited much resentment. To many, the King's inhumanity was a direct threat to their families and their hopes for a stable realm. The call for rebellion had already been brewing, and the Stark lie and the fall of Rickard and Brandon Stark did not help in quelling the unrest.

The Killing of Ned Stark's Father and Brother

The killing of Ned Stark's father, Rickard Stark, who was the warden of the north, and his brother, Brandon Stark, effectively made Ned and Robert's Rebellion a certainty. Ned's brother, Benjen Stark, had also been one of Jon Arryn's foster sons. The sudden and violent death of these Stark loyalists caused a wave of anger across the seven kingdoms, especially given their significance as defenders of the northern regions.

The Crumbling of the Kingdom

Aerys's command to Jon Arryn would have had catastrophic consequences. By demanding the execution of the Stark's foster sons, Aerys would have effectively cut off the last connection between the Arryns and the crown. The Arryns were key figures in maintaining the northern loyalty to the King. If Jon had discarded his foster sons, it would have been seen as a betrayal by not only the Starks but also by other noble houses who valued honor and loyalty.

Conclusion: The Unlikeliness of Preventing Robert's Rebellion

Given the already charged atmosphere of the realm, it is highly unlikely that Aerys's command would have prevented Robert's Rebellion. The Stark lie, the fall of Rickard and Brandon Stark, and the King's inhumane actions had already created a situation ripe for rebellion. Even without the specific order to discard his foster sons, Jon Arryn's refusal was likely to be the spark that lit the powder keg.

In conclusion, while Aerys's command to Jon Arryn would have had dire consequences for the Arryn and Stark families, the forces of rebellion were already in motion. The Targaryen dynasty's survival would have been far less certain, and the history of Westeros might have taken a very different course.