Will NATO Collapse If Turkey Leaves?

The assertion that NATO will collapse if Turkey leaves the alliance is a misconception. While the strategic capabilities of Turkey have changed significantly since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the broader Northeast European region still benefits from its membership within NATO. Nevertheless, the hypothetical scenario of Turkey leaving NATO does present challenges, but it is unlikely to lead to the collapse of the alliance.

Historical Context and Military Contributions

Originally, Turkey's primary strategic importance to NATO lay in its ability to counter the Soviet Union in regions such as the Black Sea, the Balkans, and the Caucasus. Its geographic position and large military force played a crucial role in containing Soviet influence and tying down Soviet divisions in key locations. However, with the breakdown of the Soviet Union and the subsequent dissolution of the Warsaw Pact, the threat landscape changed significantly.

The former members of the Warsaw Pact are now part of NATO, which has greatly reduced the threat to the alliance from the Balkans. Additionally, the independent countries in the Caucasus have established a new security architecture, and the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) does not impose a similar threat to NATO members. Furthermore, NATO can easily neutralize the Russian Black Sea fleet as it enters the Mediterranean, and the Russian base in Tartus is within range of American and British bases in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East.

Given that Turkey was not expected to contribute significantly to military operations in other theaters, its departure from NATO would not significantly impact NATO's military standing along the Baltic Sea and Scandinavia, where the current front against Russia lies. Turkey's capability to serve as a staging ground for operations in Syria would indeed diminish, but this can be mitigated through alternative routes involving special operations units or air bases.

Political and Economic Implications

While the military aspect of Turkey's departure from NATO does not signify immediate collapse, the political and economic ramifications could be more significant. The possibility of Turkey's exit from the European Union is a major concern. Erdogan's continued desire to build a lifelong dictatorship, akin to Putin and Xi, adds a layer of complexity to the situation. If Turkey leaves NATO, it may also face economic sanctions from the IMF and the World Bank, severely impacting Erdogan's ability to maintain power.

The European Union's current position is critical. The EU has already expressed reluctance to grant Turkey membership due to ongoing tensions and issues with human rights. A potential NATO exit could further strain relations, leading to a reassessment of Turkey's place in the European political and economic landscape.

Conclusion

While the hypothetical scenario of Turkey leaving NATO poses challenges, it is unlikely to result in the collapse of the alliance. The Northeast European region will undoubtedly face some disruption, but NATO can adapt to this new reality. However, the political and economic consequences of Turkey's actions, particularly Erdogan's ambitions, could have far-reaching implications for Turkey's international relations and stability.