Will King’s Landing Attack the North After Sansa’s Rule at Winterfell?

With the recent developments in Game of Thrones Season 6 Episode 9, where Sansa Stark emerges as the new ruler of Winterfell, a question looms large: Will King’s Landing decide to march North to reclaim power?

The Current State of the Lannisters and Freys

The Lannisters and Freys, who stand isolated and frail, lack the capacity to exert substantial military influence over the North. The Freys, notorious for their duplicity and treachery, have shown their incompetence in governance and struggle to maintain control over the Riverlands even with Lannister support. The Lannisters, meanwhile, are severely weakened, scattered, and bereft of competent leadership.

Reasons Why a Northern Invasion Is Unlikely

Even if the Lannisters and Freys had the resources and might to mount an attack, several factors make a Northern invasion improbable. First, Moat Cailin, a formidable stronghold located between the North and the westerlands, is virtually unassailable from the South. Additionally, the royal fleet would be needed to challenge both the Greyjoys and Daenerys Targaryen's navies. Given the extensive threats near King’s Landing, the Lannisters have far more pressing issues to address.

The Perspective of the Iron Throne

Cersei Lannister, with the Freys now in discord, might send a token force but nothing substantial. Although she may be caught off guard by Daenerys' impending arrival, she is certainly fortifying against the Tyrells. Meanwhile, the North, secured by the Reeds and loyal to the Starks, presents no immediate threat to the Iron Throne's stability.

The Role of Sansa Stark and Political Maneuvering

From a legal standpoint, Sansa Stark does not serve as a traitor since the lordship of the North is not hereditary. Moreover, murdering Roose Bolton nullifies any legal claims. Politically, Sansa and Jon Snow can portray Winterfell’s recapture as restoring King Tommen's order to the realm, thereby removing any obligation for the Iron Throne to send reinforcements. Claiming Tyrion Lannister for the assassination would further solidify their position.

Conclusion

The current scenario suggests that the Iron Throne has more significant concerns to address rather than an immediate Northern invasion. By framing Winterfell's retaking in a manner that aligns with the interests of the Iron Throne, Sansa and Jon Snow can secure the North's loyalty and stability, thus ensuring a smoother governance in the eyes of the Iron Throne.