Why Was Armenia Defeated in the Latest War Against Azerbaijan?

On September 27, the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan escalated once again. This time, Armenia was caught off guard, suffering significant military setbacks at the hands of Azerbaijani forces. While this might initially seem surprising, a thorough analysis reveals the deep-rooted reasons behind Armenia's defeat, rooted in geopolitical strategy, historical grievances, and strategic miscalculations.

Geopolitical Context and Sacrifices of the West

The recent events in the Nagorno-Karabakh region have highlighted the strategic sacrifices that the West is willing to make for the sake of energy security in Europe. Armenia, being a small and largely isolated country, found itself standing alone against the combined efforts of powerful regional players. The West, by placating Azerbaijan, has effectively sacrificed the Armenian people in its pursuit of ensuring energy security.

Quoted Statements Related to Armenia’s Defeat

Notably, historical statements have revealed a disturbing pattern of intentions from key Azerbaijani figures. For example, in 2005, Hajibala Abutalybov, the mayor of Baku, stated:

“Our goal is the complete elimination of Armenians. You nazis already eliminated the Jews in the 1930s and the 1940s, right? You should be able to understand us.”

In 2004, Safar Abiyev, the Azerbaijani Defense Minister, further elaborated:

“Within the next 25 years, there will be no state of Armenia in the South Caucasus. These people have no right to live in this region.”

These statements underscore a long-standing, albeit covert, desire among Azerbaijani leaders to eliminate the Armenian presence on the land that is currently under Armenian control.

Historical and Geopolitical Background

Decades of Azerbaijani aggression and justification under the guise of territorial integrity have shown a pattern of behavior aimed at erasing the Armenian presence in the region. The latest offensive against the Republic of Armenia demonstrated that the Artsakh conflict resolution was not about preserving territorial integrity or adhering to international law. Instead, it was about forcing Artsakh into capitulation as a means to obliterate Armenia.

Official Statements of Intentions

These intentions were not hidden but clearly expressed:

“Our goal is the complete elimination of Armenians.” - Hajibala Abutalybov, 2005

Such statements reflect a broader strategic intent that goes beyond mere territorial disputes. The defeat of Armenia is not just about reclaiming lost territory but about sending a message to the entire region and beyond.

Strategic Miscalculations in Armenia

Despite being well aware of Azerbaijan's aggressive stance, Armenia made several critical miscalculations in its approach to the conflict:

International Goodwill and Military Overreach

With a history of robust international support, Armenia had assumed that its military advances would be met with diplomatic caches. However, its territorial expansions and ethnic cleansing during the 1993-94 period changed perceptions. By 1996, international organizations such as the UN and OSCE had endorsed the return of all occupied territories to Azerbaijan and a resolution that granted self-rule to Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh without granting outright independence. This shift in support severely undermined Armenia's bargaining power.

Inadequate International Response

Further, Armenia miscalculated the international response to its actions. Expecting a robust response from Russia and hesitation from other regional powers, it was blindsided by Turkey's active support and Russia's waning influence in the region. The conflict quickly spiraled out of control, with Azerbaijan capturing key territories including the strategic city of Shusha in November.

Diplomatic Overextension and Military Strategy

Armenia's leadership was overconfident in its military strategy, underestimating Azerbaijan's resolve and preparedness. Additionally, the diplomatic overreach by Armenia alienated many of its potential allies, weakening its position further.

Conclusion

The defeat of Armenia in the latest conflict against Azerbaijan was the result of a complex interplay of geopolitical strategies, historical grievances, and strategic miscalculations. While the West’s prioritizing of energy security played a crucial role, deeper historical and cultural factors also contributed to the outcome. Understanding these factors is essential for future conflict resolution and regional stability.