Why Does the Venezuelan Military Remain Loyal to Maduro?

The ongoing crisis in Venezuela has brought to light the complex dynamics within its military structure, particularly the lingering loyalty of the armed forces to President Nicolás Maduro. This loyalty, often labeled as a mystery by many, can be better understood through a thorough analysis of factors such as game theory, internal dynamics, and the brutal tactics employed by the regime to maintain control.

Understanding the Dilemma: A Game Theory Perspective

The situation in Venezuela is not dissimilar to the classic prisoner’s dilemma. From the perspective of individual military members, supporting President Guaidó would provide a better outcome for their families, friends, and the broader national context. However, remaining loyal to President Maduro offers immediate tangible benefits, albeit at the risk of long-term societal harm.

Under Maduro’s regime, the military members who support him can:

Access Enhanced Commissions: Special promotions and additional bonuses. Power to Extort: Financial gain through extorting civilians and other forms of corruption. Greater Access to Resources: More available food, goods, and black market opportunities.

The Regime's Counterinsurgency Tactics

Maduro’s government excels in counterinsurgency operations and silencing dissent. The regime employs a range of tactics to ensure loyalty, including:

Severe Consequences: Members of the military who are caught supporting the opposition face significant penalties, from prison to extreme forms of torture such as /el tumba and el helicoide. Internal Spying: The presence of Cuban spies and informants within military ranks creates an atmosphere of distrust and suspicion. Threats Towards Family: Military personnel are terrified of reprisals against their families and loved ones.

These tactics create a culture of fear where individual soldiers are hesitant to speak out or make decisions independently, as they are unsure who they can trust. The regime's expertise in counterinsurgency also means that any perceived deviation from loyalty could lead to severe and often deadly consequences.

The Role of External Forces

The presence of Cuban troops and the strategic support provided by the Cuban government is a key factor in maintaining the loyalty of the Venezuelan military. The Cuban military not only oversees crucial military bases but also provides a buffer against dissent by ensuring the availability of resources within these facilities. Essentially, the Cuban military serves as a stability force, preventing any potential mutiny or widespread defection.

Conclusion: A Complex Balance of Short- and Long-Term Interests

The choice between supporting President Maduro or President Guaidó is deeply rooted in a complex balance of short-term and long-term interests. While in the long term, supporting Guaidó would lead to a more stable and prosperous Venezuela, the immediate benefits of loyalty to Maduro outweigh these long-term advantages for many military personnel.

This situation highlights the intricate interplay of personal ambition, fear, distribution within the military, making it challenging for military members to rebel or seek change through formal channels. In the end, the loyalty to Maduro is a reflection of the regime's effective control and the fear it instills in its military.