Introduction: A Quantum of Change in Westeros

Imagine a different path in the intricate plotlines of Westeros, where Catelyn Stark, the formidable Navigator of Realpolitik and fierce defender of her children, decides to take a decisive action. What if, amidst the chaos and betrayal that plagued the War of the Five Kings, Catelyn chose to safely transport Tyrion Lannister to Winterfell instead of the Vale of the Kings? This choice could have profoundly altered the course of events that led to the brutal Battle of the Bastards and beyond. Let us explore the ramifications of such a pivotal decision.

The Potential Consequences: A Different Future

Had Catelyn reached Winterfell before Theon Greyjoy, the Mama Wolf of the Stark family would not have permitted Bran to send away the remaining garrison. With her unrivaled strategic mind and protective nature, Catelyn would desire ample protection for her offspring. The added security from both more men and additional sentries at home could have made Theon’s attempt to seize Winterfell futile. This scenario eliminates the need for Bolton's intervention, ensuring Catelyn’s silence and allowing her to stay at Winterfell during the war, unable to directly advise Robb or Edmure but still remaining a force of influence.

Assuming neither of the Stark siblings went to the Crossroads Inn, or that they did not encounter each other, Catelyn could have ventured to Riverrun undetected. Even if the King’s Road to Winterfell was deemed unsafe, landing at a more secure location or taking a different route would have ensured their safe arrival. This decision would have significantly altered the strategic landscape and prevented the fate of several key characters.

Aspect by Aspect

Impact on Tyrion Lannister's Journey

If Catelyn had successfully brought Tyrion to Winterfell, Bronn would not have killed Ser Vardis Egen, and Tyrion would not have won his freedom. Consequently, he would not have joined the Mountain Clans, nor would he have met Shae. This development could have severely dented Cersei Lannister's attempts to free Tyrion, changing the balance of power in the region.

Moreover, with Catelyn and Tyrion at Winterfell, the threat of betrayal could have been mitigated. Even with her attempt to misdirect the Lannisters to Winterfell in search of Tyrion, the safety net offered by Winterfell could have provided her a crucial advantage. Robb had already left Winterfell and was in the Riverlands, but a strengthened and secure Winterfell could have offered better protection for both Catelyn and Robb.

Theon's Destiny and Realpolitik

Envisioning the alternative scenario where Theon had attempted to seize Winterfell while Catelyn was safely in residence presents a stark divergence. If Cat had been present, the outcome would have been quite different:

Catelyn Stark:

"Theon Greyjoy! What is this? What do you think you’re doing here? Shame on you! We raised you better than this!"

Theon Greyjoy:

“Lady Stark, my father scared me and made fun of me!” He’s so mean…
Catelyn Stark: “Enough of that, Theon! Don’t make me grab you by the ear and lock you in your room!”
Theon Greyjoy: “My dad sucks; I suck…the Gods will probably punish me in some terrible way.”

Such a confrontation could have profoundly affected Theon, potentially dissuading him from his Machiavellian schemes and leading to a more honorable path. The Freys and Boltons, whose loyalty was often precarious in the midst of such turmoil, could have been more reliable allies.

The Broader Implications: A More Stable Westeros

Even if the outcome of the war seemed destined to be much the same due to the complexities of realpolitik, a change in specific characters could have led to a more stable Westeros. Given the stark differences in the realpolitik standards of several key figures (Littlefinger, Tywin Lannister, Tyrion Lannister, Walder Frey, and Torrhen Bolton), a more cautious and strategic approach from Catelyn could have prevented several fateful decisions.

Ultimately, the decision to send Tyrion to Winterfell instead of the Vale would have laid the groundwork for a different path in the saga. The ramifications of such a change would be impossible to fully grasp, but the potential for a more stable and resilient future for the Stark family and the Seven Kingdoms is undeniably intriguing.

Conclusion

Westeros is a world defined by complex webs of power, loyalty, and betrayal. The actions of a single character, like Catelyn Stark, can have far-reaching consequences. If she had chosen to safely transport Tyrion to Winterfell, the path of the story would have altered in ways that cannot be fully predicted. But one thing is certain: such a change could have brought about a more stable and unified Westeros, one less fraught with conflict and more marked by the kind of strategic thinking that Catelyn represented.

The history of the Seven Kingdoms is a testament to the power of unforeseen moments of change. What if Catelyn Stark had taken this pivotal decision? We may never know, but the possibility is endlessly appealing.