Introduction

In the wake of the Second World War, the geopolitical landscape of Europe underwent significant changes. The Cold War was looming on the horizon, and the relationship between the Western Allies and the Soviet Union was strained yet still relatively cooperative. What if the Soviets had not allowed the Western Allies to cross the Elbe and enter their zone, particularly to secure their agreed share of Berlin? This paper explores the hypothetical scenario, examining the historical context and the motivations of the key players.

The Soviet Position in 1945

By 1945, the Soviet Union (USSR) was in a precarious position. Though they had achieved more than initially anticipated, their forces were exhausted both physically and in terms of resources. The USSR did not see any immediate need to engage in another major conflict, especially one that could complicate their vast territories, including Eastern Europe. The Western allies, on the other hand, had advanced significantly into German territory, well beyond the pre-planned occupation zones. For example, the Americans had pushed almost 200 miles into areas designated for the Soviet zone of occupation, taking cities like Leipzig.

Symbolism and Realpolitik

West Berlin, being a symbol of division and representing the broader issue of post-war Germany, was a key point of contention. The Western Allies were not interested in seeing a communist-controlled Germany, and the potential occupation of Berlin by the Soviets would have been a significant blow to their ambitions. West Berlin was, in essence, an island of liberty within the Soviet zone, a strategic position that could not be ceded without provoking international backlash. Even crossing into potential Soviet territory for a symbolic victory, such as the Elbe, would have been far from easy, especially on the western frontier.

The Mutual Agreement and Its Violation

The three major Allied powers, the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Soviet Union, had agreed on specific demarcation lines at the Yalta and Potsdam conferences. The agreements were designed to maintain peace and prevent a stalemate. However, the Soviet Union's willingness to respect these agreements waned once the honeymoon period ended, making the division of territories critical yet challenging. The Western Allies would have faced significant resistance if they attempted to occupy areas already designated for the Soviet zone, such as Saxony, Thuringia, and other territories. By disregarding the agreed boundaries, the Soviet Union would have pushed the Western Allies to uphold their end of the bargain, or a conflict could have ensued.

The Aftermath of 1945

Despite the initial cooperative spirit, by 1948, the relationship between the Western Allies and the Soviet Union had deteriorated. The Soviets' failure to respect the agreed borders, particularly in Berlin, marked the beginning of the Cold War. The occupation of Western Berlin, along with the subsequent Berlin Blockade and Airlift, were pivotal moments that illustrated the growing tension between the superpowers. The US and its allies saw these actions as direct provocations, leading to increased military and political tensions in the region.

Conclusion

What if the Soviets had not allowed the Western Allies to cross the Elbe and enter Berlin? Such a scenario would have likely resulted in a more robust Soviet occupation of Germany, pushing the Western Allies to adhere more strictly to their territorial commitments. This could have escalated tensions and possibly led to a return to full-scale conflict, which neither side was eager to engage in. The power dynamics of the post-war period were delicate, and the delicate balance of the Yalta and Potsdam agreements was a thready one, eventually leading to the Cold War.