Understanding the Unlikely Prospect of Russian Soldiers Rebel During the Ukraine War

The idea of Russian soldiers rebelling against their commanders to end the ongoing invasion of Ukraine is highly far-fetched. To comprehend why, it's important to revisit some historical and psychological insights.

People's Innateness in Following Orders: The Milgram Experiment

The Milgram experiment, conducted in the 1960s, starkly demonstrated how individuals are prone to follow orders, even when those orders may harm others. This phenomenon suggests that soldiers are not unusual in adhering to directives without question. As such, the idea of a large-scale rebellion remains improbable without substantial evidence.

Why Rebellions are Rare in Conflict Zones

Historically, when conflicts arise, the occurrence of soldiers rebelling against their commanders is rare. Even in cases where such actions do occur, they are typically limited to isolated incidents. This reality is further underlined by the extensive scale of modern warfare, rendering the notion of a widespread rebellion virtually impossible.

Russian Military Composition and Motivations

Many Russians fighting in Ukraine are volunteers. Some are motivated by financial incentives, while others are seeking to escape criminal charges. However, this volunteer contingent is still a small fraction of the overall military force. A comparison can be made to the fanbase of a football team like Millwall. The likelihood of mass defection is akin to fans of Millwall switching allegiance to Chelsea for their Derby match - highly improbable.

Putin's Popularity and Public Sentiment

The war in Ukraine is deeply rooted in Russian public sentiment, with Putin enjoying significant popularity. His approval ratings in Russia mirror those of Donald Trump in the United States, indicating a strong support base for his actions. Economic factors, such as inflation and rising interest rates, are troubling but do not approach levels that could spur widespread unrest.

Pro-Conflict Mindset and Misinformation

Russian civilians, particularly the educated and intellectually akin to deeply committed religious believers, firmly believe in the narrative that the war is necessary. They see the conflict through the lens of an existential threat from Ukrainian Nazis, a narrative expanded by even fabricated claims of nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Such beliefs are so entrenched that any opposing view is dismissed as propaganda, perpetuated by Western enemies.

A Conclusion Based on Historical Precedence and Psychological Inclination

Based on historical precedence, psychological inclinations, and current public sentiment, it is clear that the prospect of a Russian military rebellion to conclude the war is highly improbable. The military continues to function as a force of order, following orders without question, and the overall domestic environment disfavors any shift in public or military support for the current narrative.