Understanding the Safety of Assad in Russia and the Political Implications

The current political landscape in the Middle East is fraught with tension, and the safety of Bashar al-Assad and his family is a significant concern. This article delves into the underlying reasons why Assad might be considered a bargaining chip, the strategic deal already in motion, and the potential consequences for both Russia and the Syrian rebels. By examining these factors, we aim to provide a clearer understanding of the complex political dynamics at play.

Is Assad Really Safe in Russia?

The primary reason Russia is harboring Assad is to demonstrate their unwavering support for their allies, especially when things take a turn for the worse. However, this support comes at a considerable cost. Putin’s decision to maintain Russian military bases in Tartus and Khmeimim is based on strategic interests rather than a consistent desire to preserve Assad’s regime.

Should Assad lose these strategic positions, Russia may consider giving up Assad as a means to recapture the military ports. From Putin’s perspective, securing the ports is crucial, as they are seen as essential for Russia’s continued influence in the region. While Assad holds no real political power in Syria, he could be used as leverage in future negotiations. The idea of trading a used dictator for strategic military assets is not too far-fetched, given Russia’s current political and economic situation.

The Strategic Deal Already in Motion

The deal to retain the Russian military bases in Tartus and Khmeimim has already been struck with the Syrian rebels. This arrangement is beneficial for all parties involved. For the rebels, the lease money from these bases provides a much-needed economic boost. Additionally, Russia’s military presence acts as a stabilizing factor, which the rebels both fear and acknowledge is necessary for the region’s current stability.

However, the situation in Syria is far from stable. Israel’s opportunistic strikes on Syrian military depots have added a layer of complexity. While Russia has been trying to improve relations with Israel, they did not intervene during the Israeli air assault. This action by Israel further complicates Russia’s position, highlighting the potential for conflict in the region.

Political Bargaining and Future Implications

The Syrian rebels will likely view Russia’s lack of response to Israel’s attacks as a betrayal. This could lead to a further deterioration of relations between Russia and the rebels, potentially jeopardizing the existing deal. Russia’s ultimate goal remains securing Israeli technology and weaponry, which could be a key factor in any future negotiations.

Israel is interested in selling technology and weaponry to Russia but understands the economic challenges Russia faces. The scenario of trading US support for Russian rubles appears unlikely. Instead, Israel may offer more lenient terms or alternatively consider a more favorable partnership based on mutual interests.

In conclusion, while Assad may appear to be safe in Russia, the situation is complex and fraught with potential for change. The strategic deal to retain Russian military bases could be leveraged as a bargaining chip in future negotiations, but the true stability of the situation depends on the broader political and economic landscape.

Keywords: Assad, Russia, Syrian Rebels, Military Bases, Political Bargaining