Understanding the Differences Between Possible, Plausible, and Probable
Understanding the Differences Between Possible, Plausible, and Probable
When we try to predict events or outcomes, it's crucial to understand the nuances between three key terms: possible, plausible, and probable. Each term conveys a different level of certainty and likelihood, helping us make informed decisions and assess risks more accurately.
Definition of Possible
Possible refers to something that can happen or exist, regardless of how likely it is. This term is broad and does not require any prior evidence or likelihood to be present.
Example: It is possible for a person to win the lottery. Although the odds are very low, it is not impossible, and the lottery rules do not preclude it from happening.
Definition of Plausible
Plausible means something that seems reasonable or probable based on the available evidence or circumstances, but it is not guaranteed. This term requires some degree of reasonableness or alignment with common experiences or expectations.
Example: It is plausible that a person could be late to work due to heavy traffic. This scenario is reasonable and aligns with common experiences, even though it does not guarantee the person's tardiness.
Definition of Probable
Probable indicates something that is likely to happen based on evidence or statistical reasoning. It conveys a higher degree of certainty than plausible, suggesting a strong likelihood of the event occurring.
Example: Given a weather forecast predicting a 70% chance of rain tomorrow, it is probable that it will rain. This indicates a strong likelihood based on available data and statistical reasoning.
Summary of Key Distinctions
Possible
Can happen (example: winning the lottery)Plausible
Seems reasonable (example: being late due to traffic)Probable
Likely to happen (example: rain predicted at 70%)Understanding these distinctions is vital for assessing risks and making well-informed decisions. By recognizing the probabilities and potential outcomes, individuals and organizations can better prepare for various scenarios.
Application Through Sports and Baseball
Let's delve into the world of baseball to provide a clearer perspective on these terms.
Example: Aaron Judge and his Home Runs
Consider the batting prowess of Aaron Judge, a Major League Baseball star. Understanding the differences between possible, plausible, and probable can be applicable in this scenario.
Possible
Is it Possible that Aaron Judge could hit ten homeruns in a game? Yes. There is nothing in baseball rules or the laws of physics that would prevent this from happening. However, it is highly improbable in practice.
Plausible
Is it Plausible that Aaron Judge could hit ten homeruns in a game? No. Given the rules of baseball and historical records, hitting ten home runs in a single game would be considered extremely implausible. It would cause skepticism and doubt about the legitimacy of such an event.
Probable
Is it Probable that Aaron Judge could hit ten homeruns in a game? Certainly not. Probables require a reasonable basis, and hitting ten home runs in a single game violates the laws of probability and historical precedence in baseball.
Following Example
Is it Possible that Aaron Judge could hit three homeruns in a game? Of course. The rules do not prevent this, and it has occurred in baseball history, albeit rarely.
Is it Plausible that Aaron Judge could hit three home runs in a game? Yes. Considering that Judge has hit home runs before, this outcome would be reasonable but still quite rare.
Is it Probable that Aaron Judge could hit three homeruns in a game? Not probable. Hitting three home runs in a game for a slugger like Judge is a significant achievement, likely to happen a few times in a stellar career.
Final Example
Is it Possible that Aaron Judge could get one base hit of any kind (single, double, triple, home run) in a game? Certainly. The rules of baseball do not prevent this.
Is it Plausible that Aaron Judge could get one base hit of any kind in a game? Of course. Consider his consistent performance, and hitting a single or any base hit is reasonable.
Is it Probable that Aaron Judge could get one base hit in a game? Yes. Given his batting average and statistics, getting at least one base hit in a game is highly probable.
By applying these concepts, we can better understand and predict baseball performance, as well as other situations in sports and life.
Conclusion
Understanding the distinctions between possible, plausible, and probable is crucial for making accurate assessments and informed decisions. Whether you are a baseball fan, a business analyst, or a decision-maker in any field, recognizing these nuances will help you navigate potential outcomes with greater precision.