Ukraine's Path to Recovery: The Future of its Southern Coast

The current geopolitical tensions between Ukraine and Russia have drastically altered the post-Soviet landscape. Even as Russia clings to her stance that the conflict is not about destroying Ukraine or its sovereignty, the reality on the ground reveals a more complex and dangerous situation. This article delves into the prospects for Ukraine's recovery, particularly the future of its southern coast, and the necessary steps for a peaceful resolution.

Prospects for Southern Coast Recovery

The southern coast of Ukraine, an asset strategic and economically significant, is under the control of Russian forces. While Russia has claimed this does not mean the destruction of Ukraine, the conflict has created uncertainty. In line with past negotiations and future prognostications, it remains to be seen whether a negotiated settlement can solve the dispute, with the southern coast likely returning to Ukrainian control. However, this hinges on the outcome of the ongoing war and the extent to which Russia's true intentions are revealed.

Ukraine's Demands for Peace

For a peaceful and long-lasting resolution to the conflict, Russia must meet certain demands from Ukraine and her allies. The comprehensive list includes:

Stop the war and admit their invasion was unjustified Withdrawal of troops, including colonists in the Donbas region Reparations for the damages and losses incurred Return of Crimea to Ukrainian control Sign a peace treaty recognizing Ukraine's borders, sovereignty, and freedom to join any organization of its choice Dismantle military bases along the Ukrainian border established since 2014

Failure to meet these demands could prolong the conflict and further destabilize the region. The international community, including allies and neutral parties, must pressure Russia to comply with these demands for a sustainable peace.

Prognosis for Future of Southern Coast

The recovery of Ukraine’s territories is imminent. It is predicted that either in the aftermath of the Russian army's defeat or within a few years following Vladimir Putin's removal from power due to civil unrest or a coup, Ukraine will reclaim lost lands. Putin's centralized system, heavily reliant on him, is also expected to collapse following his removal. This will lead to fragmentation within Russia, with various oligarch factions vying for power and initiating civil wars that will divide the country into several factions.

The consequences of such an extended civil war will be cascading, affecting not only Russia but also the global geopolitical balance. This marks the end of the Russian empire, a 350-year-old threat to the civilized world. The disintegration of Putin's centralized system is likely to have far-reaching impacts, including the need for international coordination to remove nuclear weapons from Russian territory. Ukraine may be asked to take control of certain regions where these weapons are based, a move that will significantly alter the global security landscape.

Conclusion

The future of Ukraine's southern coast, indeed, depends on the outcome of the ongoing conflict and Russia's intentions. The realization of a peaceful and long-lasting resolution hinges on Russia meeting the demands of its allies and the international community. Beyond this, the recovery of lost territories is almost certain, as are the significant geopolitical changes that will unfold in the coming years. The path forward is fraught with challenges but offers the hope of a more stable and prosperous future for Ukraine and the world.