The Unlikely Path of American History: An Alternate Scenario

Imagine a different outcome to the American War of Independence. How would the United Kingdom of Great Britain holding dominion over the thirteen colonies impact the course of American history? This alternate scenario explores various threads of this hypothetical narrative, focusing on economic, social, and political developments.

The Early Years of Post-War Domination

Under British governance, the thirteen colonies would experience a period of modest prosperity initially. The enclave of loyalist colonists would primarily seek to integrate into Europe's growing economy, rather than support American ideals. While many would find success in Europe, the majority of the population would focus on carving out niches there. This era would mark a time of shifting allegiances and incremental growth, as economic ties with Britain would continue to strengthen.

Settlement and Conflict in the West

The primary frontier would see significant changes. Scotch-Irish settlers would depart from coastal colonies around the 1790s, embarking on journeys by flatboat and horse-drawn wagon into territories designated for Native American tribes. Ohio, Kentucky, and Tennessee would become new frontiers, but the settlers would face a hostile reception from local tribes and would struggle with the lack of European patronage. This would lead to a series of conflicts and alliances that would shape the landscape and population distribution of the western regions.

Plantation Culture and Colonial Partnerships

Further south, colonial plantations would partner closely with the Cherokee, establishing a new plantation culture west of the Appalachian Mountains. Initially, these settlers would ally with the French and Spanish colonials, who were eager to hinder English expansion. These relationships would be delicate and often marred by power struggles and conflicting interests. Over time, these alliances would evolve, particularly in the 1820s, as settlers west of the Appalachians would declare independence under leaders like Aaron Burr, forming a series of small, autonomous countries in the heart of American territory.

The Expansion into Texas and the West

In the 1830s, the expansion to the west would witness English-speaking settlers bringing both slavery and plantation culture to Texas. As tensions with Mexico escalated, these settlers would eventually break away, claiming significant territories in the American Southwest. Meanwhile, the Midwest and Plains tribes would ally with French Canadians and the British Crown to resist English-speaking settlers in the upper Mississippi and Missouri river basins. This complex web of alliances would continue to shape the political and social landscape of the region.

British Commercial Interests and Pacific Northwest

Without the frenetic activity of Yankee settlers in the Pacific Northwest, British commercial interests would grow in these regions. New colonies in modern-day Washington and Oregon would expand as convicts originally destined for Australia found a more hospitable environment there. The discovery of gold at Sutter's Mill in 1848 would set off a global gold rush, attracting a diverse influx of settlers from Texas, Mexico, and the Northwest.

California’s New Path

California, formerly a remote outpost, would see a dramatic transformation. The flood of settlers from various regions would overwhelm the state, leading to its eventual declaration of independence. Under the 'Bear Flag' flag, this new nation would hold onto the dream of sovereignty and independence.

The Final Frontier

Without the influx of Yankee settlers spurring western expansion, the final chapter of American history remains uncertain. The likelihood of a unified, independent American nation would be significantly altered. Instead, a patchwork of smaller, autonomous regions and territories, under various European influences, would form the basis of what we now know as the United States.

However, this alternate narrative highlights key areas where the absence of American independence would have profoundly altered social, economic, and political trajectories. It serves as a reminder of the critical role the American War of Independence played in shaping the modern American nation.