The Strategic Implications of a Failed Tyrell Alliance with Tywin Leading to King’s Landing

Imagine a dire and complex scenario in the world of A Song of Ice and Fire, where the Tyrell alliance collapses, yet Tywin Lannister still manages to arrive at King’s Landing before Stannis Baratheon does. This hypothetical situation presents numerous strategic challenges and potential outcomes, with the balance of power profoundly reshaped in Westeros.

The Lannisters Are Propped Up, But Not by Much

Originally, the narrative might suggest that Tywin's arrival would single-handedly save the Lannisters. However, this is far from a simple win. Tywin Lannister, a formidable master of war, leads a vastly depleted host of approximately 20,000 men. His army suffered significant losses in a series of battles, including the Battles of the Green Fork and the Fords, and due to the persistent skirmishes with the Brotherhood Without Banners, foraging parties, and the defection of the Brave Companions. Moreover, whatever men he left garrisoning Harrenhal probably account for another 2,000 to 3,000 casualties. Thus, Tywin's forces have likely shrunk to between 17,000 to 19,000 men.

Stannis Baratheon, on the other hand, commands a formidable army of approximately 35,000 to 48,000 men. His forces originate from a wide region, including Stormlands, Florent forces, and Crownland conscripts, numbering from 5,000 to 8,000. Additionally, Stannis holds a significant naval advantage.

The Army of King’s Landing: A Limited Threat

Within the walls of King’s Landing, the situation is anything but secure for Tywin. The city is home to around 5,000 Gold Cloaks, a force that, despite its name, is more akin to a police force rather than seasoned soldiers. When combined with Tywin's men, the total within the city stands at approximately 20,000 to 23,000. But this is a risky and limited counterbalance. Stannis's superior naval forces could cut off supplies and reinforce his ground troops effectively.

A Dire Strategic Blunder

While Stannis's numbers may seem overwhelming, Tywin's actions in this scenario are nothing short of a strategic blunder. Joffrey, the nominal King of King’s Landing, now faces a city in upheaval. King’s Landing is reeling from riots, and the King’s position is far from stable. The support systems and allegiances that Joffrey relies on are fractured or nonexistent.

The North, Riverlands, Iron Isles, and Dorne are all independent, withholding any form of aid or recognition. Robb Stark, the Northern king, wanders the Westerlands with ease, showing no concern for the current situation. Stannis controls the Stormlands and the Narrow Sea around the Crownlands, creating a solid base of operations. This political landscape is fraught with instability, making both Robb and Stannis potential allies against Joffrey.

Potential Alliances and Outcomes

Considering these dynamics, Robb and Stannis might forge an agreement reminiscent of their alliance with Renly, recognizing Northern dominion over the Riverlands while granting Stannis the Narrow Sea and the Crownlands. This arrangement would both maintain the status quo and provide Stannis with a strategic buffer zone.

The political leverage that Robb Stark previously held has significantly diminished. His forces south of the Neck are now reduced to around 13,000 men, a fraction of what they once were. Additionally, Balon Greyjoy's Ironborn invasion adds another layer of complexity to an already volatile situation.

The Shift in Power

The conclusion of this scenario would likely see a shift in the balance of power in Westeros. Joffrey's rule over King’s Landing is tenuous at best, with riots and rebellion expected to continue. Tywin's forces, now weakened, would struggle to maintain order. The alignment of Robb and Stannis could potentially undo the Lannister stronghold, leading to a reevaluation of allegiances and a new political landscape in Westeros.

The ramifications of a failed Tyrell alliance and Tywin's arrival at King’s Landing before Stannis involve not only military strategy but also political alliances and the emotional and psychological state of the various claimants to the Iron Throne. This complex scenario highlights the precarious nature of power in Westeros and the unpredictable outcomes that can arise from such a shift in the tides of war.