The Strategic Decision of Jon Arryn: A Study of Diplomacy and Rebellion in Westeros

In the intricate and tumultuous world of Westeros, the decision of Jon Arryn to call his banners rather than negotiating with Aerys II Targaryen was a pivotal moment that shaped the course of the War of the Usurper. This article delves into the political, social, and personal factors that influenced Arryn's strategic decision, examining the complex geopolitical landscape and the motivations behind each step he took.

Political Climate and Aerys II's Paranoia

The political climate of Westeros during the time of Aerys II was marked by an intense and often violent atmosphere. Aerys II, known as the Mad King, had descended into paranoid tyrannical rule, viewing many of his subjects with suspicion and often acting unpredictably. This made any attempt at diplomacy nearly impossible, as Aerys was unlikely to engage in rational discourse.

The Stark and Baratheon Alliances

Another critical factor in Arryn's decision was the political landscape and the alliances that existed during the time. Jon Arryn had a strong alliance with House Stark through his marriage to Lyanna Stark. This bond was vital, as it provided a solid base of support for the coming conflict. Arryn understood that this alliance would be crucial in uniting the lords of the realm against a common enemy, making the call to arms a strategic necessity.

The Need for Unity

In a landscape where negotiation alone was unlikely to secure support from other houses, Arryn recognized the importance of unity. By calling his banners, he aimed to create a coalition strong enough to challenge Aerys II's rule. This strategy was designed to present a united front that could withstand the wrath of a ruler who was prone to violent actions.

Personal Motivations and Moral Obligation

Beyond the political and strategic considerations, Arryn's decision was also driven by personal motivations and a sense of moral duty. Arryn felt a strong connection to his deceased foster son, Ned Stark, and the Stark family. This moral obligation to act against Aerys II's tyranny, as well as the desire for justice, drove him to adopt a more aggressive stance. His actions were not solely motivated by the expansion of power or control, but by a deep-seated belief in the need for justice and the protection of the realm.

The King's Orders and Jon Arryn's Strategic Calculus

Some argue that King Aerys II's orders, such as the one to kill Ned Stark and Robert Baratheon, created a dilemma for Jon Arryn. Instead of faced with the choice between rebelling directly against Aerys II or ignoring his orders, a strategic alternative could have been to bait the mad king, thus securing a valid casus belli. By keeping Robert and Ned under a tight leash and allowing Aerys II to perpetrate further violence, Jon Arryn could have created a clearer pretext for rebellion.

Furthermore, Jon Arryn was known as the master of Westerosi diplomacy. His previous roles, such as the patron of wards for Rickard Stark and Steffon Baratheon, and his reliance by Tywin Lannister on pushing Cersei as queen, underlined his expertise in the intricate world of political maneuvering. This experience made him adept at using strategic misdirection to achieve his goals, rather than mere negotiation or direct confrontation.

Therefore, while it is understandable to question Arryn's actions, the complex interplay of political intrigue, moral obligation, and strategic foresight makes his decision a nuanced and well-thought-out response to the evolving political landscape of Westeros.