The Reasons Behind Boris Johnson’s Rejection of Another Scottish Independence Referendum

With frequent calls for a second Scottish independence referendum, it is a timely reminder of the complex factors at play. This article explores the rationale behind Boris Johnson's decision not to allow another referendum, including economic, political, and social considerations.

Understanding the Context

The constant demand for another independence referendum is often seen as little more than a political game. The Scottish government, led by the Scottish National Party (SNP), has consistently claimed they cannot afford to go it alone, despite polls indicating a potential win for the 'Yes' campaign. This hesitation underscores the logistical and economic challenges involved in becoming an independent nation. For instance, setting up the modern infrastructure of a state, such as a pension system, tax policies, welfare measures, and a central bank, would take years to establish. Similarly, negotiating new relationships with the UK government and other countries would be fraught with difficulties and uncertainties.

The Purpose of the Constant Calls for Referendum

The SNP's persistent calls for another referendum serve to divert attention from their own failures in education, healthcare, and the pandemic response. By shifting the focus to the possibility of independence, they obscure the shortcomings of their current governance. The 2014 vote, while unsuccessful, demonstrated the complexity and potential risks of Scottish independence. Generating support for a second referendum now would allow the SNP to address domestic issues by placing them in the background, although history shows that the results of the next referendum, if it happens, are uncertain at best.

The Impact of Brexit on Scottish Independence Debate

The 2016 Brexit referendum further complicates the Scottish independence debate. When a British prime minister called the 2016 Brexit referendum, he gambled and lost. The country proceeded to leave the European Union, leaving a lasting impact on the relationship between the UK and other countries. Similarly, the SNP's push for another referendum in 2014 was rebuffed when they lost. The current situation is different; there is now a greater shift in public opinion towards Scottish independence.

However, Boris Johnson is acutely aware of the risks involved. If a second referendum were to be held and Scotland were to vote 'Yes,' it would not only collapse the historic United Kingdom but also result in significant consequences for the rest of the UK. Additionally, the current political climate, which includes the ongoing pandemic and its economic impacts, adds to the complexity of another referendum. A campaign leading up to a referendum would be a massive logistical challenge, especially in light of the pandemic. Conducting a referendum in a controlled environment would be difficult, if not impossible, amidst the current global health situation.

The Relevance of Timing and Public Opinion

It is important to consider the timing and the public opinion surrounding such a referendum. Since the last referendum in 2014, public sentiment in Scotland has shifted, and polls now suggest a potential win for pro-independence parties. However, Boris Johnson may argue that they should wait a generation to see if the 'Yes' campaign maintains its momentum, given the historical context.

The debate over Scottish independence is intertwined with the broader political landscape, including the challenges of Brexit and the economic realities of sovereignty. While the SNP seeks to capitalize on this shifting landscape, the reality is that another referendum would be a complex and risky venture for all parties involved.

Ultimately, the decision to reject another referendum lies in balancing the potential political gains and losses, the economic costs, and the societal impact. While the polls may suggest a pro-independence trend, the UK government is likely to proceed with caution, mindful of the far-reaching consequences.