The Potential Impact of a Russian-American Confrontation over a Downed Fighter Jet in Syria

Introduction

The international landscape is fraught with tension, particularly regarding Russia's actions in Syria. If Russia were to shoot down an American fighter jet on November 7th over Syria, the repercussions would be far-reaching, with potential ramifications not only in military actions but also in the upcoming elections.

The Current Military Stance and Possible US Response

President Obama has been firm in his military stance, pushing for the strengthening of U.S. forces near Russia and the refurbishment of the nuclear arsenal. This kind of response is likely to align with Hillary Clinton's plan to enforce a No-Fly Zone over Syria. However, it is unlikely the U.S. and Russia would immediately come to blows. The U.S. would certainly feel immense pressure from both Democrats and Republicans to react.

Demographics and Public Opinion

It is important to consider how the American public views these issues. Surveys show that the majority of the U.S. population does not identify as either Democrat or Republican. Instead, a significant number of Americans identify as independent voters. This could mean that the Nationalist Republicans (a term often used to describe Trump supporters) would find Trump more appealing in terms of foreign policy, as he is more cautious about provoking Russia compared to Hillary Clinton.

Most Americans are opposed to military action against Russia. According to a December 2015 poll, only 46% of Americans believed the U.S. should even be addressing international issues abroad. Further, in March 2016, only 34% wanted to increase U.S. military presence in Syria, with 29% maintaining the status quo and 30% wanting a reduction in involvement. In 2013, 63% of Americans felt that being in Syria was not in the U.S. national interest, and a staggering 79% felt that Obama had not explained the purpose of U.S. involvement in Syria.

Public Perception of Russia and Putin

Public perception of Russia and Putin remains relatively neutral. According to polls, Russia is seen as a low threat to the U.S., ranking as low as Mexico in terms of potential rivals. While Putin's approval rating is low, it is not because of his actions in Syria but due to the Ukraine decision. Notably, Americans believe that Putin is not against the U.S. but rather that he is helping it.

The Impact on the Election

The political implications of a confrontation with Russia would be significant, especially regarding Hillary Clinton's campaign. During the campaign, Hillary has been advocating for a No-Fly Zone, which has significantly impacted her favorability ratings. If a U.S. fighter jet were shot down, and Obama responded by enforcing a No-Fly Zone, this would be highly unfavorable for Clinton. Her continued push for increased military action in Syria has alienated parts of the population who believe the U.S. should not be so involved.

Furthermore, the public is weary of the failed regime changes in Iraq and Libya, and they do not want to see the U.S. repeat these mistakes. The No-Fly Zone would likely lead to further conflict, which is not something the majority of Americans desire. The poll results clearly show that a significant portion of the population would rather see the U.S. working with Putin rather than against him.

Conclusion

In conclusion, a Russian-American confrontation over a downed fighter jet in Syria would have profound implications. The potential for increased military action and a No-Fly Zone could damage Hillary Clinton's election prospects, while strategically, Trump's stance on avoiding a direct conflict with Russia might resonate more with the American public. The situation underscores the importance of diplomatic strategies over military action, as the majority of Americans prefer such an approach.