The Missed Opportunity: Gustavo Fring and the Path to Meth Monopoly

In the gripping narrative of Breaking Bad, Gustavo Fring represents the epitome of success in the meth trade. However, his ultimate downfall might have been avoidable if he had made a different strategic decision. Many fans and critics argue that he should have entered politics instead of staying in the shadows. Yet, a more intriguing scenario is what could have happened if Fring had chosen to kill Walter White.

Why Killing Walter White Would Have Enhanced Gustavo Fring's Reign

The entire crux of Gustavo Fring's power and influence lies in his association with Walter White and his unique talent in cooking the best meth. No other meth cook in the market could compete with Walter, making Gus's partnership invaluable for other dealers aiming to outdo their competitors. However, this same reliance on Walter also became his undoing, as it left him vulnerable when Walter turned on him.

But what if Fring had chosen to end Walter's life instead? By killing Walter, Gus would have eradicated the direct competition. This might seem brutal and morally questionable, but it would also have provided him with a unique opportunity. With Walter out of the picture, Gus could have easily sourced another chemistry expert to replicate Walter's meth-making process.

With the years of experience and the extensive video surveillance footage Gus had acquired, he had more than enough knowledge to recreate Walter's meth. No other person in the world would have the depth of understanding that Gus possessed. And if he had taken out Walter alongside Jesse Pinkman (another key figure in Walter's story), Gus would have been free to rule the meth market in the United States swiftly and efficiently.

A Failure of Metrics and Strategy

The reason Gustavo Fring failed to capitalize on his opportunities is rooted in his flawed metrics and strategic thinking. He was preoccupied with the competition between himself and Walter, rather than considering the broader dynamics of the market. He looked at Walter as the 'top dog' and focused on removing him, but in doing so, he neglected the fact that his own competitive edge was lost after Walter's reneging, leaving others in a position to exploit this new environment.

The book "Metrics and Why They Fail" that I recently read highlighted real-world examples of how metrics can mislead. Fring’s approach perfectly illustrates this concept. By measuring the wrong difference, he inadvertently weakened his own position. His greed, perfectionism, and arrogance ultimately lead to his downfall, as he became too focused on Walter White's capabilities and not on maintaining his own advantage.

In essence, Gustavo Fring's regrettable choices were not just about moral failing but also about poor strategic planning. Had he chosen to eliminate Walter and Jesse, he would not only have dethroned his rival but also secured his own dominance in the meth trade. Instead, his misguided prioritization of Walter's direct threat led to his own demise.

The Alternate Scenario

Let’s go back to the moment when Gustavo Fring was just moments away from victory in Season 4, Episode 1. Moments after Jesse killed Gale, Gustavo had Walter and Jesse both in a compromising position. This was his golden opportunity to end the competition once and for all. However, Walter used the same tried and true method - a last-minute appeal to Fring’s greed. Fring, his rational mind clouded by his own shortcomings, fell victim to this strategy once again.

Ultimately, this moment in the narrative is a stark reminder of how critical strategic thinking is, and how even a small misstep can lead to catastrophic consequences. Gustavo Fring’s story serves as a cautionary tale for anyone involved in competitive industries, whether in the world of meth cooking or any other high-stakes business.