The Impact of Lysa's Death on the Lords Declarant's War Efforts

The outcome of the Battle of Duskendale is heavily influenced by the fate of Lysa Arryn, the grandmother of Catelyn Stark and the Mother of Dragonstone. If Lysa had died prior to the battle, it would have significant implications for the Lords Declarant and their willingness to go to war. This article explores the different scenarios and their potential consequences.

Scenario 1: Natural Causes of Death

One scenario suggests that Lysa might have died from unassisted natural causes, such as falling off the Giant's Lance. If this were the case, the most likely candidate to assume the Regency would be Bronze Yohn Royce.

Bronze Yohn Royce: A Stark sympathizer, Royce would have significant sway over the Lords Declarant. Despite the lack of unified leadership, it is highly likely that the Lords Declarant would still be willing to go to war. Bronze Yohn’s influence would be crucial in consolidating their efforts towards the war.

Scenario 2: Marriage to Littlefinger

A different scenario involves a potential marriage between Lysa and Littlefinger, Petyr Baelish. This scenario introduces an element of complexity and unpredictability. According to timeline evidence, Littlefinger had been granted permission to marry Lysa before the Battle of Duskendale. If he had managed to marry her, he would have become the Lord Regent of the Vale.

Impact of Littlefinger’s Marriage: The Vale lords might not fully support this marriage, but they are unlikely to rebel openly against Littlefinger. The marriage of Littlefinger to Lysa could provide him with the political leverage to secure the support of the Vale for his broader goals, including dealing with Robb Stark and consolidating power.

Strategic Alliances and Political Manipulation

If Littlefinger had married Lysa, it is likely that he would not immediately encourage a war against the Lannisters. However, he might discreetly reach out to Robb Stark, proposing a strategic alliance. By offering Robb a title in exchange for Sansa and the Vale’s armies, Littlefinger could gain significant political clout.

Robb Stark’s Perspective: At this crucial juncture, Robb Stark is in need of alliances, especially given his contempt for Cersei Lannister’s political maneuvers. Despite holding Catelyn in disdain, Robb might consider the military strength and political influence of the Vale as valuable assets. Catelyn, as Robb’s mother, would likely encourage such alliances, making it easier for Littlefinger to navigate this complex political landscape.

Personal Gains for Littlefinger

Under this scenario, Petyr Baelish stands to gain substantial benefits:

Harrenhal: The castle remains with him, providing a steady stream of revenue and prestige. Political Influence: From a mere amiable lackey in King's Landing, Littlefinger could become a major political force across the Seven Kingdoms. Personal Reconciliation: If Lysa were to die in an accident, Littlefinger could leverage Catelyn’s grief to secure a marriage for himself or his siblings, thus maintaining his alliances with the North and the Riverlands. Consoling Little Robert: Lysa’s death could also provide comfort to young Robert Baratheon, further solidifying Littlefinger’s place among the allies.

In conclusion, whether Lysa’s death would have led to a change in the Lords Declarant’s willingness to go to war depends on the circumstances of her death and the subsequent political maneuverings. The scenario involving a marriage to Littlefinger introduces a complex web of alliances and strategic considerations that could significantly influence the course of the war.