The Future of the SNP if Scotland Becomes Independent: Transition, Transformation, and Possible Party Split

Introduction

The question of whether the Scottish National Party (SNP) would dissolve if Scotland became independent has been a subject of much debate. This article explores factors such as the party's purpose, the political landscape, public support, and internal dynamics, concluding with a possible scenario for the SNP's future after an independent Scotland is established.

Purpose of the SNP

The SNP was founded with the sole purpose of advocating for Scottish independence. The party's primary goal has been to end Scotland's status as a part of the United Kingdom and establish it as an independent nation. Once this goal is achieved, the party's focus is likely to shift to governance, policy-making, and addressing the needs of an independent Scotland.

Political Landscape

If Scotland becomes independent, the SNP's role and influence could evolve based on the responses of other political parties. In the short term, while it transitions to governing, the SNP is likely to remain the dominant party. However, the longer term outlook is uncertain. If the SNP can successfully adapt to its new role, it may continue to be a major political force.

Public Support

The SNP's future is closely tied to public support. If it can maintain voter confidence and effectively address key issues such as economic stability, social policies, and governance, the party is likely to continue to thrive. Conversely, if it fails to gain and maintain public trust, it may begin to decline.

Internal Dynamics

The internal structure and leadership of the SNP will play a crucial role in determining its future. If the party can successfully transition from a nationalist organization to a governing body, it will be more likely to remain relevant. Inevitably, there will be internal disagreements and a diversity of viewpoints, which could lead to a more fragmented political landscape.

Scenario for SNP After Independence

Timeline of Transition

Building on the experience of Brexit, the SNP transition to an independent Scotland is likely to take time, similar to the four-year period from the 2016 referendum to the actual exit in 2020. The SNP would maintain its focus on key issues such as establishing relationships with the United Kingdom (rUK), the European Union (EU), and NATO, while also ensuring economic stability.

Internal Divisions and Future Parties

The SNP is currently a 'broad church' with diverse viewpoints, including moderate conservative figures like Kate Forbes and more extreme figures like Joanna Cherry. These divisions could lead to a splintering of the party into multiple factions after a decade of independence. For example, after achieving NATO and EU membership and stabilizing the economy, the SNP might split into 2-3 parties:

A progressive Sturgeonite party that might work closely with the Greens and Labour types. A moderate party that would likely work with the Lib Dems and current Labour. The Tartan Tories, which would work with conservatives Alba and potentially Reform.

Coalition Politics

After the SNP's initial dominance, coalition politics might become a more prominent feature, similar to how it operates in nations like Ireland. This shift could lead to more stable and effective governance, although it would also require significant negotiations and compromises between the different parties.

In conclusion, while the SNP's primary goal of independence would be achieved, the party is likely to transform rather than dissolve. It will focus on governance, the future of Scotland, and potentially form a coalition government to address the diverse needs of an independent nation.