The Future of Human Lifespan: How Many Years Until Significant Extension?

In recent years, the average longevity of Americans has been declining, primarily due to factors such as obesity, cardiovascular diseases, medical malpractice, and the significant increase in dietary carbohydrates. Despite these challenges, the quest to significantly extend human lifespan continues to capture the imagination of scientists and researchers worldwide.

Exploring the Possibility of Becoming Amortally

While it is true that no human has or ever will die of old age, the concept of amortality, defined as the ability to regenerate injured parts at a cellular level without developing cancer, remains elusive. Can we ever achieve this? History shows us that while some advancements may seem inconceivable, they do come to fruition. For instance, the idea of humans traveling to the moon, which was once pure science fiction, is now a reality. Similarly, the journey to amortality is yet to be charted out, but signs are promising.

The Current Landscape of Lifespan Extension

Despite the challenges, we are starting to piece together the puzzle of what is needed to significantly extend lifespan and healthspan. A comprehensive rejuvenation of the body addressing all areas of aging is essential to achieve this goal. Just treating some of the issues caused by aging without addressing the others would only result in a partial rejuvenation, leaving the body vulnerable to life-threatening events. The key areas of progress include:

CRISPR-Cas9 technology for gene editing Stem cell therapies, particularly induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) Senescent cell clearance

We are currently at a point where these technologies are making rapid strides. CRISPR-Cas9 was first used for gene editing in 2013, and major progress was made in the creation of iPSCs in 2012. Additionally, recent developments in senescent cell clearance are contributing to this significant advancement. The medical knowledge is doubling every 73 days by 2020, compared to every 3.5 years in 2010. Researchers project that this doubling rate could accelerate further with AI and other technologies, possibly reaching every 7 days in the future.

Projection of Breakthroughs and Timeline

Based on the current rate of progress and the advancements in these key areas, there is a 60% chance of bringing aging under a decisive degree of medical control within the next 10 to 20 years. The long-term outlook is even more promising, with a 90% or better chance of achieving significant progress in this century. While it is challenging to predict long-term timelines, many researchers believe that medical knowledge could double every 7 days within the next two decades, fundamentally transforming the way we understand and approach aging.

Looking at Oncology, even just five years ago, we could barely recognize the speed at which things are moving. This exponential growth in knowledge and the application of emerging technologies could lead to a paradigm shift in the longevity and health of human populations. As we continue to explore the capabilities of medical science, the possibility of achieving a significant extension in lifespan seems closer than ever before.

While the journey to amortality is full of uncertainties, the advancement in medical technologies and the rapid growth in medical knowledge are promising. As we continue to push the boundaries of what is possible, the potential for extending the human lifespan and improving quality of life is within our grasp.