The Decisive Mistake of House Martell: Marrying Elia to Rhaegar

House Martell's single most significant error in the complex saga of Westeros was the decision to wed Princess Elia Martell to Rhaegar Targaryen. This pivotal event did not only affect the immediate royal family but also had profound ramifications for Dorne, the entire region, and ultimately the wider political landscape.

The Immediate Fallout of the Marriage

The marriage of Elia and Rhaegar marked a moment of tragic alliance - one that would tie the fates of House Martell and House Targaryen inextricably together. However, this union was to prove the beginning of the end for the Martells in Dorne. When the civil war erupted, Elia and her children were nowhere near safe. In fact, the placement of Elia in the heart of the Targaryen caused an immediate and deadly proximity to the conflict.

The Potential Alterative: Protecting Dorne Through Proximity

Instead of placing Elia in the storm center of the conflict, an alternative strategy might have been to retain her in Dorne. Maintaining Elia's presence in Dorne could have served a dual purpose: firstly, it would have preserved the cohesion and safety of the Martell family. Secondly, it could have utilized the strategic positioning of Dorne to remain neutral in the Targaryen Rebellion. By not marrying Elia and Trystane to Dornish people but keeping them within the safety of Dorne, the Martell’s could have maintained their power and influence.

The Broader Political Impact

The decision to place Elia with Rhaegar meant not only the immediate endangerment of the Royal Martells but also a significant shift in Dorne's loyalty. If Elia had remained in Dorne, the Dornish would have lacked the impetus to support another Targaryen claim. The subsequent death of Elia would have had little impact on Dorne’s position. Without her presence within the Targaryen court, the Dornish nobility would have had no reason to intervene in the irreconcilable blood feud.

The Prospect of Neutral Stance

Additionally, had Elia stayed in Dorne, she could have used her position to mediate and negotiate solutions to the rebellion. Her influence in Dorne could have created a buffer against the chaos of the Targaryen Revolution. The Dornish likely would not have joined in the rebellion if their princess and future queen of Dorne remained safe in their homeland.

The Silent Impact on the Future

The absence of such a significant figure in the rebellion would have had ripple effects on the future timeline. It is plausible that the Dornish might have seen the opportunity to support King Robert Baratheon as they did not share the same enmity with him as they did for King Aerys II. Such a shift in allegiance could have led to a different set of alliances and outcomes during the early years of King Joffrey's reign. Instead of a passive stance, the Dornish could have committed troops to rebellious forces against the Lannister-supported crown.

Conclusion

The marriage of Elia Martell to Rhaegar Targaryen stands as a clear case of strategic misjudgment. The decision to place Elia at the center of the Targaryen court set in motion a series of events that had lasting consequences for Dorne and House Martell. Had the Martells chosen a quieter path and protected Elia in Dorne, they would have navigated a more peaceful and impactful journey through the turbulent times of Westeros. The broader political landscape of Game of Thrones, including the fate of the Targaryen dynasty and the rise of the Baratheons, would have been significantly altered.