The Current Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh: Ukraine’s Losing Streak and the Possibility of a New Regional Order

The Current Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh: Ukraine’s Losing Streak and the Possibility of a New Regional Order

Overview of the Conflict

The recent conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh has polarized the South Caucasus region. Armenia, the embattled side, is currently experiencing a significant loss, a reality that many predicted due to their isolated geopolitical position and lack of strategic allies. This essay explores the implications of an Armenian defeat and the potential impact on regional politics, focusing on the possible rise of Turkey as a dominant actor in the region.

Are Armenians Losing the War?

The evidence points to a clear answer: Armenia is indeed losing the war. The strategic miscalculations and subsequent military setbacks have left Armenia in a vulnerable position. With no external support and the weight of international condemnation, Armenia finds itself on the defensive against an increasingly powerful Azerbaijani force.

Implications of an Armenian Defeat

An Armenian defeat in the conflict could trigger significant shifts in the regional order. One of the most notable possibilities is the integration of Turkey into the South Caucasus, which many are cautiously optimistic about. However, this scenario raises questions about why Russian President Vladimir Putin does not intervene to prevent an Azerbaijani victory.

Potential Interventions by Major Players

1. Why Putin Might Not Intervene: Russian influence in the South Caucasus has always been complex, but the current conflict is occurring on territories claimed by Azerbaijan. Putin's priorities lie in maintaining a strategic balance that benefits Russian interests, which do not necessarily align with supporting Armenia's separatist cause. Furthermore, it's worth noting that Putin himself has been actively combating separatists within Russia, making any intervention in favor of Armenians less plausible.

2. Regional Stability and Influence: If Azerbaijan were to achieve a decisive victory, it would undoubtedly reshape the regional dynamics. Turkey, a key player, could exploit the situation to deepen its influence in the South Caucasus. This development would not only affect immediate geopolitical alignments but also alter energy and trade routes in the region. As a result, Russia might find it challenging to maintain its traditional sphere of influence.

Current Situation and Recent Developments

Recent developments indicate a shift in the battlefield. The Azerbaijani forces have made significant advances, and the city of Shusha, which has historical and strategic importance, is the focal point of current hostilities. It is essential to note that Shusha is an Azerbaijani city located within Azerbaijan's territory. The displacement of Armenians from the region and the ongoing negotiations to repatriate the native Azerbaijani population highlight the complexity and intensity of the conflict.

Future Outlook and Potential Consequences

Bear in mind, Shusha is not Shushi; this distinction is crucial for accurate reporting. The recapture of Shusha would signify Azerbaijan's reclaiming of lost territories under international law. This action is supported by the Russian government, which emphasizes the importance of this area to Azerbaijan.

The involvement of Turkey and other regional powers in the conflict could further destabilize the situation. Turkey's interests in the region extend beyond geopolitics, involving economic and strategic benefits. A stronger Turkish presence in the South Caucasus would challenge Russian hegemony and potentially exacerbate tensions with other neighbors, such as Georgia and Iran.

Conclusion

The conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh represents a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape of the South Caucasus. An Armenian defeat could lead to a new regional order, characterized by increased Turkish influence, altered trade and energy routes, and a reassessment of Russian and Western positions in the region. The ongoing military operations and political maneuverings highlight the complex interplay of national interests and historical grievances that shape the future of this conflict.

Keywords: Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Armenia, Azerbaijan, regional order, Turkey