If Stannis Baratheon Won the Battle of Blackwater Bay: The Fate of Joffrey and Tommen

In the passionate and complex world of A Song of Ice and Fire, a battle's outcome can drastically shift the political landscape of a realm. Let us explore how the significant victory of Stannis Baratheon in the Battle of Blackwater Bay could have impacted Joffrey and Tommen Lannister. The political ramifications of such a shift would have been profound, and the fates of Joffrey and Tommen could have been altered in various ways.

Joffrey's Fate

As the sitting king, Joffrey would likely have faced a dire fate if Stannis Baratheon had triumphed in the Battle of Blackwater Bay. Stannis, a man driven by his righteous sense of justice and devotion to the realm, would have sought to remove the Lannister family from power, a powerful and influential family that controlled large portions of Westeros for generations. The most straightforward option for Stannis would have been to capture or kill Joffrey. However, Stannis is depicted as a man who attempts to be fair, even if that fairness is often tempered by the exigencies of war.

Another possibility is that Stannis might have opted for exile. Exiling Joffrey to the Wall, where the Night's Watch enforces the Wall as a bulwark against the Wildlings, would serve as a convenient solution. It would neutralize Joffrey while keeping him alive, thus avoiding the need for his blood. Exile, especially to the secluded and austere life of the Night's Watch, would represent Stannis's desire to remove a potential rival from the political scene without resorting to direct violence.

Tommen's Fate

Tommen, being younger and less politically significant, might have been treated differently. Stannis's political strategy would have dictated how he handled Tommen. If Stannis aimed to ensure the loyalty of the remaining Lannisters, he might have allowed Tommen to remain in King's Landing. Alternatively, he could have sent Tommen to the Wall alongside Joffrey, serving as a means of ensuring the Lannisters' compliance with Stannis's rule. This move would solidify Stannis's position as the rightful king and reduce the Lannisters' influence in the realm.

Political Strategy

The decision to send both Joffrey and Tommen to the Night's Watch would serve Stannis's interests by removing the Lannister heirs from the political scene. It would simultaneously weaken the Lannister claim to the throne, creating a power vacuum that Stannis could exploit. Moreover, it would demonstrate to the people that Stannis is not merely a warrior but a man of justice and mercy, albeit limited in his mercy.

Stannis's strategic goals and his willingness to risk further conflict with the Lannisters and their allies would determine his specific actions. Exiling the Lannister children to the Wall could neutralize them without directly engaging in a conflict that might lead to his own demise. This move would also signal to the people that Stannis is a man who values the welfare of the realm over personal vengeance. However, his vision for governance and his approach to ruling the Seven Kingdoms would play a crucial role in his decisions. The Night's Watch could serve as a convenient solution for neutralizing the Lannister heirs, but it would depend on Stannis's overarching goals and his desire to rule fairly.

Book vs. Show Stannis

While the show version of Stannis is portrayed as a merciless and brutal leader, the book version shows a more nuanced character who attempts to be fair in his righteousness. In the books, Stannis might consider sparing the children because they are still young and innocent, but in the end, they would likely still be uted. The show version of Stannis is a man who has already demonstrated a willingness to use violence to eliminate his enemies. For Stannis, the Lannisters would be another house to be wiped out, similar to the Tullys and the Freys, and he would be the one singing the Rains of Castamere.

Either version of Stannis, whether fair or merciless, the outcome would likely not be favorable for the Lannister children. With a victory at Blackwater Bay, Stannis's vision for governance would determine the fate of Joffrey and Tommen. Sending them to the Wall would be a strategic choice to neutralize the Lannister threat, but it would also mark the beginning of the end for the Lannister line and the allegiances they command.