How Did Ser Barristan Selmy Discover That Aegon VI Is a Blackfyre Among the Theories?

At the conclusion of “A Dance with Dragons,” we know little about ‘Young Griff.’ Many readers are inclined to refer to him as Aegon VI, but one must be cautious, as this implies he is the actual son of Rhaegar Targaryen, which would be a significant twist at the tale's midpoint. According to the narrative, Young Griff claims to be the offspring of Rhaegar Targaryen, and his rise has been supported by Jon Connington, Ilyrio Mopatis, Varys, and the Golden Company. The story, however, leaves us with several theories surrounding Young Griff's true identity.

The Three Theories

According to much speculation, here are the three main theories about Young Griff:

The Son of Illyrio Mopatis

One theory posits that Young Griff is, in fact, the son of Illyrio Mopatis. This theory aligns with the strong support he receives from Illyrio and Varys. A key piece of supporting evidence is the prophecy by Quaithe, who refers to "the mummer's dragon," suggesting that Young Griff is a fake and not a true Targaryen. Illyrio has a history of arranging marriages with Valyrian women, which could explain the Targaryen look he might have inherited.

A Blackfyre Descendant

This theory suggests that Young Griff could be a direct descendant of House Blackfyre, a cadet branch of House Targaryen. The support of the Golden Company is a crucial point in this theory as it was founded by Aegor 'Bittersteel' Rivers, a half-brother to Daemon Blackfyre, the original founder of House Blackfyre. The Golden Company has long supported the Blackfyre claim to the Iron Throne. Although the male line of House Blackfyre is presumed extinct, there could be members of the house and their descendants who have evaded detection. Furthermore, Young Griff's Targaryen features could be explained by an ancestral connection through Illyrio’s wife, who is speculated to be of Valyrian heritage and possibly a member of House Blackfyre.

A Boy with the Right Look and Age

Another possibility is that Young Griff is simply a boy from Pentos or another Free City, who happens to possess the right Valyrian features and age. Given the legacy of Old Valyria, it is not uncommon to find individuals with these distinct features. Illyrio Mopatis could have chosen such an orphan to assume the identity of a Targaryen son, making him Young Griff.

Ser Barristan Selmy and the Discovery

Before the events of “A Dance with Dragons,” Ser Barristan Selmy had not met Young Griff. Therefore, it is likely that he did not discover the boy's true heritage. However, there is a significant point to consider: at the end of the novel, Ser Barristan Selmy surely would have known that Young Griff was associated with the Golden Company. Having knowledge of the Golden Company's support for Young Griff, including the support they offer to a Blackfyre claimant, Selmy might reasonably assume that Young Griff is a Blackfyre offspring. The overwhelming support from the Golden Company and their ties to House Blackfyre could reasonably prompt such an assumption.

Ultimately, while the true identity of Young Griff remains a mystery, the theories proposed by A Dance with Dragons and the later events in the series keep readers engaged in the ever-entertaining world of Westeros.