How Bernie Sanders Could Have Won: An Exploratory Analysis

The defeat of Bernie Sanders in the 2016 and 2020 Democratic nomination races has long been a subject of debate and critical analysis. Numerous factors contributed to his lack of success, with the role of party bosses and election rigging often cited as significant factors. This essay delves into various scenarios and potential outcomes that could have led to Bernie Sanders' victory.

The Role of Party Bosses

The Democratic National Committee (DNC) played a pivotal role in Bernie Sanders' loss. It is widely acknowledged that the DNC had a preconceived notion that they wanted Hillary Clinton to win the nomination. Evidence of this can be seen in the primary results in six states where the count was so closely matched between Bernie and Hillary that it was decided by a coin toss. Every single one of these tosses came up in favor of Clinton, a highly improbable outcome that suggests some form of manipulation.

The Probability Analysis

Let's perform a probability analysis to visualize the improbable nature of these outcomes. If each state had a 50% chance of resulting in either Bernie or Hillary's victory, the probability of all six states resulting in Clinton victories is:

0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 0.015625 or 1.5625%

While this is not impossible, it is highly improbable, suggesting that the results were not a random occurrence.

Comparing 2016 and 2020

In 2016, Bernie's candidacy had a distinct advantage over Hillary. By positioning himself as an alternative to Hillary's status quo, Bernie was able to attract a broad and diverse base of supporters. However, in 2020, things changed. Bernie was tarnished with the perception of being a "hardcore communist," and his campaign faced significant challenges. The party made it clear that it was not ready to embrace a socialist as its nominee, resulting in a futile effort for Bernie to change the narrative.

The Primaries and Rigging

It is often alleged that the primaries were rigged. This suggestion has been supported by various claims and analyses, although it remains controversial. If true, it would explain why Bernie's support did not translate into nominations despite his strong performance in the debates and campaign activities.

Alternate Scenarios

One possible scenario is that both Democrats and Republicans would need to unite to nominate Bernie Sanders. This would require Joe Biden and Donald Trump to drop out of their respective parties, and for the Republican Party to also nominate Sanders. Such an outcome would have been unprecedented and would have required a massive shift in party alignment.

Joe Biden's recent performance raises concerns about his ability to continue as the Democratic nominee. His recent videos and public appearances have been met with mixed reactions, with some viewing as embarrassing while others see them as evidence of cognitive decline. If his condition worsens, it could become an issue of elder abuse to continue his campaign, and Bernie Sanders could emerge as the natural heir.

Conclusion

While Bernie Sanders' success in the 2016 and 2020 Democratic primaries was ultimately obstructed by a combination of factors, including party rigging and shifting public perceptions, various scenarios could have led to his victory. The decisive role of party bosses and the impossibility of some primary results strongly suggest that the path to the nomination was not a natural one. As with many historical elections, the true story of Bernie Sanders' defeat is likely to remain a point of debate for many years to come.