Exit Polls: A Source of Entertainment or Misleading Predictions?

The recent state election on 7th December 2018 in Telangana raised significant questions about the reliability of exit polls. Exit polls, often perceived as the gatekeepers of election results, have faced considerable skepticism and scrutiny over the years. This article delves into the doubts surrounding the accuracy of these polls and their impact on the electoral process.

The Triviality of Exit Polls

Exit polls are often hailed as a quick fix to a long-drawn electoral process, but in reality, they are far less reliable than many would believe. In the context of the 2018 Telangana state election, the results provided by exit polls were notably skewed, predicating that Congress, TDP, CPM, and other local parties would form an alliance, one that was expected to outnumber the TRS. However, the actual results were quite different. This raises questions about the veracity and authenticity of these predictions.

Opinion Polls and Their Limitations

Opinion polls and exit polls are often considered tools for entertainment and ratings boost, rather than reliable indicators of the voting behavior. These surveys are frequently manipulated by political parties to portray a favorable narrative, and news channels use them to garner higher viewer ratings. It is important to note that while these polls aim to predict seat shares, their accuracy is often questionable, particularly when the vote share is close.

The Reliability of Poll Predictions

Exit polls usually provide some level of reliability when the winning party has a substantial lead. However, when the margin is close or zero, the predictions often fail. Take, for instance, the 2014 Lok Sabha election, where despite a clear trend, the exit polls were significantly off in their predictions. Similarly, in the 2017 Uttar Pradesh assembly elections, despite widespread demonetization affecting BJP's prospects, exit polls still predicted favourable results. These instances highlight the unreliability of exit polls, especially when there is substantial uncertainty.

Manipulation and Ambiguity in Exit Polls

The real issue with exit polls lies in their manipulability. For example, if a handful of people in a sample pool are paid to misreport their intentions, the entire poll can be skewed. This can lead to misleading predictions and can even be used for nefarious purposes, such as influencing election outcomes. The fact that each exit poll often has a margin of error of ±3% further exacerbates the unreliability of these polls.

Conclusion: Trust the Electoral Commission

While exit polls and opinion polls may be used to hype or sensationalize the proceedings, it is crucial to rely on the official results declared by the Election Commission. The so-called swing and projected seat gains are more often than not mere wild guesses. The 2018 Chhattisgarh election provided compelling evidence that these polls are not reliable, with BJP winning despite being heavily favored in previous forecasts. Similarly, the results in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh further underscore the unreliability of these predictions.

In summary, while exit polls can be exciting to watch, they should not be trusted as definitive predictors of election results. The true and authentic results will be declared by the Election Commission, and it is best to await those results with patience and confidence.

Keywords: exit polls, opinion polls, election predictions, veracity of polls, authentic results