Elections in West Bengal: Can the TMC government survive until 2026?

For the past decade, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been attempting to topple the Trinamool Congress (TMC) government in West Bengal but has so far failed to do so. This is largely due to the fear of complete political annihilation.

The Political Landscape of West Bengal

The political situation in West Bengal is complex, and the lack of a single Hindu Bengali party that prioritizes the needs of Bengali Hindus poses a significant challenge. If the BJP were to win, the Bihar/Hindi belt's interests would take precedence; conversely, if the TMC were to win, the Bangladeshi interest would be served. In either scenario, Bengali Hindus would likely be at the receiving end.

Why Will BJP Lose?

The BJP is destined to lose in West Bengal, and it is unlikely to return to power in the state, especially with its current inability to cater to the specific needs of Bengali Hindus. If the BJP were to win, it would risk losing everything, and many Bengalis would prefer a third option, such as supporting Bangladeshi interests.

Geopolitical Implications of West Bengal

The most significant impact of the TMC losing in West Bengal would be the massive exodus of 5 crore Bengalis and industries, providing a new geography for growth for Bangladesh. This potential shift in demographics and economic geography would lead to a significant geopolitical change, causing political heart attacks like Mamata Banerjee's. Despite this, if the TMC were to collapse, it would lead to a new governing entity taking over, and the change in party allegiance would not necessarily change governance crimes and corruption.

Chances of TMC Collapse in 2026

The potential collapse of the TMC government in West Bengal before the 2026 elections is unlikely. The TMC has shown signs of reform after ten years of governance experience. Moreover, a substantial number of TMC leaders are currently in jail, facing trial, or dealing with pending court cases related to cash-for-job scams.

Mamata Banerjee: A Seasoned Politician with Political Acumen

Mamata Banerjee, the leader of the TMC, is a seasoned and intelligent politician with a strong track record. Underestimating her political acumen is a mistake. She has consistently demonstrated her ability to navigate political challenges effectively. The TMC faces no significant opposition in West Bengal, and any underestimation of Banerjee's capability would be a critical oversight.

What to Expect in 2026

While it may seem that TMC workers will join a new government and change their allegiance, the governance issues, such as crimes and corruption, are likely to persist. Media coverage and revelations of these issues are often suppressed, especially under new governments. The celebration or mourning of such events would likely be driven by emotional instability or paid political members.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the TMC government in West Bengal is likely to survive until 2026 due to a combination of political reforms, ongoing legal challenges, and the resilient political acumen of Mamata Banerjee. The geopolitical implications of a perceived loss for the TMC would be substantial, but the state's political dynamics suggest that the TMC is well-positioned for the upcoming 2026 Assembly elections.