Do Movie Directors Know if Their Film Will Be a Success or Fail After Filming?

When it comes to predicting whether a movie will be a success or a failure after filming is completed, the answer is complex. Factors such as the success of the initial shooting, the quality of the post-production, and the final editing process all play significant roles. Let's explore these aspects in depth.

Initial Shoot: Critical for Success

The initial shoot of a movie is often a make-or-break moment for the director and their team. If everything goes smoothly, the days are filled with successfully capturing all the necessary shots and scenes, the foundation for a successful film is laid. However, if the shooting process is hindered by issues such as missed days or insufficient coverage of planned scenes, the chances of a successful film are significantly reduced.

One notable example is the film The Snowman. Despite the incredible talent and effort of the cast and crew, the director faced significant challenges during post-production due to an inability to capture all necessary shots. This led to a gibberish final product, which ultimately failed at the box office. The director's ability to recognize that the film would not succeed during the editing phase is a critical insight that can save countless resources and efforts.

Post-Production Insights

The post-production phase, including editing, visual effects, and sound design, is perhaps the most critical period for a director to gauge the potential success of their film. During this time, the director begins to see the film in its entirety, allowing them to assess several crucial aspects:

Visual Flow and Theme

The visual flow and theme of the movie become more apparent during editing. A director can observe if the narrative is coherent, and if the visual elements enhance or detract from the storytelling. Any visual elements that feel out of place can signal potential issues. For instance, if the pacing is uneven, scenes feel disconnected, or the visual theme is inconsistent, the film may not resonate well with the audience.

A prime example of this is the film Suicide Squad. Though the movie had the potential to tell a compelling story, the extensive editing and cuts left the narrative disjointed. Directors often know when something is amiss during this phase, as evidenced by the film's failure to achieve its full potential.

Visual Effects and Length

The quality of visual effects is another crucial factor. Poor visual effects can detract from the viewing experience and indicate potential areas of trouble. Additionally, the length of the film is a critical consideration. If a movie is deemed too long, it may require further edits to accommodate theater run times and maintain audience interest. A case in point is Suicide Squad, which could have been more coherent if it had been longer, highlighting the importance of pacing and length.

Final Call: Understanding the Audience's View

While directors can have a keen sense of the film's quality during post-production, it is challenging for them to fully predict how audiences will perceive the movie. As Alex Pangloss puts it, “you know that the reason why Alex hesitated before slipping the knife between Carol's wife's ribs, but if the audience has only seen Carol's wife murder an entire family with a croquet mallet and not the touching memory of how Carol's wife behaved at their son's christening, the reading of the situation that they take away may be different from what you do.” This means that even an honest director may find it difficult to fully gauge the film's reception.

High confidence in a film’s success is typically reserved for directors with a proven track record or for films that have already received positive critical feedback. Cases like Ryan Coogler with Black Panther are exceptional. However, it is rare for even the most confident directors to declare their film as a success without test audience reactions. As Gordon Lightfoot would attest, “you don’t hear about too many Gordon Lightfoot recording Sundown moments that actually work out.”

In conclusion, while directors can learn a lot from the post-production phase, the final decision on a film's success remains a matter of audience reception and market performance.