DMK's Potential: Emerge as a Single Independent Party in Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly Elections 2021

Overview of the Possibilities for DMK

Speculations abound regarding the political landscape in Tamil Nadu come the 2021 Legislative Assembly elections. While it is uncertain if the DMK will become the sole independent party, there are indicators pointing to a strong performance from the DMK. The confidence post-poll, tweets by stalwarts, and the current mood at the EPS camp suggest that a victory for DMK seems likely.

DMK’s Projections and Performance

Based on current projections, the DMK may secure between 130 to 150 seats, with any result above 150 being considered excellent. The party is expected to sweep the southern district elections and win in the delta districts as well. The battlegrounds will be the western district (57 seats) and northern regions excluding Chennai (64 seats).

Factors Influencing the Vote

Electoral trends and potential shifts in voter sentiment play a crucial role in the 2021 elections. People in Tamil Nadu have been demanding a change for nearly a decade. In contrast, the earlier 5-year cycles saw frequent alternations of power between DMK and ADMK. However, the 2016 election results were notably different, with ADMK holding the government with Pratheepan Jayakumar Jagannathan's administration. Following Chief Minister Jayalalithaa's passing, ADMK found itself in a similar situation to DMK after MGR's demise. The state government has successfully managed the administration for four years under the leadership of EPS.

The primary motivators for people in Tamil Nadu are the opposition to BJP’s penetration in the region and dissatisfaction with the current DMK rule. DMK has been focusing on critiquing BJP, especially in light of the central government's recent policies and inflation in LPG and petrol prices, which have angered voters. People are now looking for a change in governance.

Voter Support and Against

There is a diverse array of support and opposition for the DMK:

Supporters

All DMK families Party workers and leaders Minorities Castes based on alliances Government staff Unions 2,000 new young voters who are unfamiliar with DMK's past rule Voters divided by the Sasikala group

Opponents

ADMK and its alliance families Certain castes Some religious groups MK Alagiri and his supporters Unsatisfied DMK groups

Based on the current scenario, projections suggest that DMK could secure 134 seats.

The political landscape in Tamil Nadu is set for a tumultuous period leading up to the 2021 Legislative Assembly elections. The DMK's ability to emerge as a single independent party is indeed within the realm of possibility, contingent on how these factors play out.