Could Japan Have Conquered Russia: An Improbable Scenario

Considering the geopolitical landscape of the mid-20th century, the idea of Japan conquering Russia seems preposterous. However, let's explore the hypothetical 'what if' scenario where Japan had invaded Russia instead of attacking Pearl Harbor, as proposed in the Operation Kantokuen plan.

The Soviet Union's Naval Power

Let's start by addressing Soviet naval power. The Soviet Pacific Fleet in 1945 comprised approximately 85 boats (or small ships). This insignificant fleet would have been unable to mount a significant defense against a naval invasion from Japan, a nation well-versed in maritime warfare. In comparison, the Western Allies possessed over 9,000 ships, including 175 aircraft carriers and 16 battleships. These formidable naval assets would have overwhelmed the Soviet fleet effortlessly.

Japan's Inability to Invade Russia

A small, resource-scarce island nation like Japan would have found it challenging to invade a vast country like Russia. The best Japan could achieve would be a temporary occupation of some nearby Russian republics. In contrast, Japan's present-day scenario is bleak – a declining and aging population, stagnant industrial activity, a weakened economy, an impotent military heavily reliant on the United States, and a lack of national cohesion and purpose.

The Strategic Flaws in the Kantokuen Plan

Operation Kantokuen was a detailed plan devised by the Japanese military. However, it hinged on a series of extremely improbable conditions. For instance, the plan required the fall of Moscow to German hands – an outcome that was highly unlikely given the progress of Operation Barbarossa, the German invasion of the Soviet Union. The Japanese plan was part of a larger Axis strategy, with Both Operation Barbarossa and Operation Kantokuen linked, to ensure their joint success on the Eastern Front. The fall of Moscow would trigger the Japanese invasion of Eastern Siberia.

The Soviets' Defense Readiness

The Soviet military was well-prepared for a Japanese assault. Marshal Zhukov, who led the Soviet forces during the Battle of Manchuria, noted that the Japanese lacked the ability to conduct effective tank warfare. Manchuria and Mongolia's open plains were perfect for armored tactics, which were to a large extent superior to Japanese technology and training. The Japanese could not match the Soviet strategy of combined arms.

Attractive but Unattainable Hypothesis

Even if Japan had managed to invade the Soviet Union, the outcome would have been uncertain. For example, the Soviet Union could have counterattacked with reinforcements from Siberia, or the Japanese invasion could have been pre-empted by a nuclear strike from the USSR. Moreover, the vast distance of 7,500 km between Tokyo and Moscow made such an invasion nearly impossible.

Conclusion: The Unlikely Feasibility of Japan's Siberian Campaign

In conclusion, the idea of Japan conquering Russia is a Euro-centric misunderstanding of the complexities of the 1940s Pacific and Eastern Front theaters. The Soviet Union's naval power, strategic advantages, and the inherent geographical challenges make this hypothesis unrealistic. If Operation Kantokuen was ever implemented, it would have been a monumental failure, as historical evidence and the strategic capabilities of both sides demonstrate.