Could France Have Outmaneuvered Germany in 1939?: An Analysis of Strategic Missions and Military Doctrine

At the beginning of World War II, the strategic challenges faced by France and the decision-making processes during the Phoney War are of significant importance. Understanding the timeline of events between the German invasion of Poland and the initial phases of the conflict can provide insight into whether France had the potential to take a more assertive stance and potentially alter the course of the war.

The Timeline of Events

German Invasion and Initial Declarations of War

The German invasion of Poland on September 1, 1939 prompted Britain and France to declare war on Germany on September 3. poland surrendered on October 6, establishing a pivotal moment in the early stages of the conflict. However, by this time, the British Expeditionary Force (BEF) had already left the UK to reinforce France, arriving in Cherbourg on September 10. It took nearly two weeks for the BEF to reach its designated position on the front lines, by which point the Saar Offensive had already been halted.

The French Military's Strategy

Initial Offensive Efforts

The French military began the Saar Offensive on September 7, four days after the declaration of war. The offensive was intended to commence on September 16, thirteen days after the declaration, but it soon faced uncertainty. The French Army's cautious approach to the offensive was influenced partly by the defensive mindset inherited from World War I and partly by public opinion. French newspapers like La Croix on September 9, 1939, called for caution and prudent saving of military strength rather than rapid, decisive victories.

Action Francaise, on September 15, 1939, also echoed these sentiments, suggesting that France should avoid heavy losses and focus on a more prolonged strategy. This cautious approach was further reinforced by the French Prime Minister, Daladier, who emphasized the need to be prudent with French lives.

Comparisons and Justifications

The French military and government's decisions were influenced by a comparative analysis of the military situations from World War I and the initial weeks of World War II. They noted that Germany was diplomatically isolated, the German army was inferior to its 1914 counterpart, and the economic and morale situations in Germany were worse. Additionally, Germany was facing blockades, while France had the Maginot Line, which was thought to be impenetrable.

Consequences of Strategic Considerations

While these comparisons were meant to justify a cautious approach, they may have been somewhat misplaced. The Saar Offensive was called off, and the French military concentrated on defensive preparations, leading to a period of inactivity. As a result, the window for a decisive offensive had likely closed by the time the French were fully mobilized.

Analyzing the Impact of German Reinforcements

The commencement of the Phoney War, also known as the drole de guerre, was characterized by relative inactivity. This period saw a reduction in French losses, with 1,434 men killed by November 30, 1939, compared to 450,000 in December 1914. This comparative analysis was instrumental in justifying a continued defensive strategy, despite the availability of military and political support for more aggressive actions.

The Potential for a Different Outcome

A Cautious Approach

Despite the potential for heavier fighting, the French military and government chose to adopt a more cautious approach. Some historians argue that if the French had pursued the Saar Offensive with vigor, they might have altered the course of the war. However, given the expectation that Poland would hold out for several months and the assumption that the Soviet Union would remain neutral, the time for a decisive offensive had likely passed by the time France was fully mobilized.

Lessons from German Generals

After the war, some German generals, such as Jodl and Westphal, expressed the belief that a more assertive French offensive could have changed the outcome. Yet, the realities of complex strategic calculations and evolving military landscapes often prevented such opportunities from being seized.

In conclusion, while France's strategic decisions were influenced by the lessons learned from World War I, the complex geopolitical landscape and the evolving nature of the conflict ultimately limited their ability to take a more decisive role in the early phases of World War II.