Comparing the Clinton vs. Trump Polls to the Biden vs. Trump Polls: Key Differences

The 2016 and 2020 elections saw significant differences in the polls, particularly in terms of the candidates' performance, voter behavior, and trends in key swing states. This article delves into the key differences between the Clinton vs. Trump polls and the Biden vs. Trump polls, focusing on critical swing states and overall polling accuracy.

Polling Accuracy and Voter Behavior

Compared to 2016, Biden's lead in the polls is notably larger, indicating a more confident victory in many states. In contrast to Clinton, Biden has maintained a steady lead, with a strong presence in swing states like Arizona (AZ), Florida (FL), North Carolina (NC), Michigan (MI), Pennsylvania (PA), and Wisconsin (WI).

In 2016, Clinton had higher levels of undecided voters, who often supported Trump during the final stages of the campaign. According to analysis, Clinton's support fell steadily from September through the election, with Clinton's net unfavorable stance at minus 13, compared to Biden's net favorables at 4. This suggests that Biden is more resilient against negative campaign messaging and maintains a more positive image among voters.

Influencing Factors on Voter Behavior

Multiple factors are contributing to Biden's current polling strength. Suburban voters are expected to shift their support from Trump to Biden, while African-American voters are projected to turn out in greater numbers than in 2016. These demographic shifts are reminiscent of the 2018 midterm elections, where similar trends were observed.

Another critical factor is the changing demographics. The US has seen an increase in minority voter turnout, which could provide additional support for Biden in key swing states.

Comparing State Polling in 2016 and 2020

Understanding the 2016 election's polling inaccuracies is crucial for predicting the 2020 results. The following table summarizes the key findings:

State 2016 Final Poll Average 2016 Official Result 2020 Current Poll Average Arizona (AZ) Clinton 1 Trump 7 Biden 5 Florida (FL) Clinton 1 Trump 1 Biden 5 North Carolina (NC) Clinton -2 Trump 6 Biden 3 Michigan (MI) Clinton 3 Trump 5 Biden 5 Pennsylvania (PA) Clinton -1 Trump 2 Biden 5 Wisconsin (WI) Clinton 1 Trump 20 Biden 1

In 2016, poll averages predicted a Clinton victory in every state except Arizona (AZ), but her final results showed that Trump overperformed, particularly in Michigan (MI), Pennsylvania (PA), and Wisconsin (WI). To predict the 2020 outcomes, one could apply similar margin errors to current polls, which might result in a near miss for Biden in North Carolina (NC) and a close win in Wisconsin (WI). However, given the current trends, a Biden victory in the majority of these states seems likely.

Current Polling Trends and Accuracy

While the polls can be inaccurate, the current trends suggest a strong Biden victory. A national lead of 7 to 10 points and a Democratic party advantage of 8 points on the generic congressional ballot indicate a stable and healthy campaign.

In 2016, Clinton had a narrow national lead, and the generic congressional ballot was effectively tied, raising concerns about the stability of her lead. This discrepancy is less pronounced in 2020, with Biden maintaining a significant lead.

Given these factors, even if the polls are slightly off, Biden is still expected to have a solid advantage in the 50 days remaining before the election. The margin of error needed to change the outcome would be substantial, suggesting that Biden is a strong favorite to win the 2020 election.