Can Donald Trump Win in 2020?

Entering the 2020 election season, many are eager to know whether Donald Trump can secure victory in what promises to be a closely watched and intensely scrutinized contest. Election predictions are always subject to change, as voter behavior can shift rapidly. In this analysis, we explore the potential states where Donald Trump could still win, along with an overview of the electoral map and key battlegrounds.

Key Electoral Votes and State Projections

Let's dive into my personal prediction (albeit with a disclaimer that these are opinions and not professionalpolitical analyses):

West Coast (74 Electoral Votes)

California, Oregon, and Washington are firmly under Democratic control, with no real contest expected here. These states are traditionally blue and present a solid battlefield for any Democratic candidate, making them safe for Joe Biden.

The Southwest (37 Electoral Votes)

In this region, Biden has a strong chance to carry Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona. Nevada, while closer, will likely fall to Joe Biden due to the strong Democratic votes from Las Vegas and Washoe County. Colorado and New Mexico are trending more liberal, and Biden is likely to edge them out. Arizona remains a tossup due to its changing demographics and youth population, but Democrats currently have an edge.

The Northwest (21 Electoral Votes)

Trump will most likely secure Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska. However, Nebraska’s 2nd district will be a tough call, as Nebraska's electoral votes are allocated differently, with two districts leaning Republican and one district more competitive.

The Midwest (116 Electoral Votes)

Borrowing from the 2016 results, the Midwest's landscape has seen significant shifts. States like Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia could be key. Iowa is a tossup but leans Republican, while Wisconsin is currently in Trump’s favor. Michigan is likely to remain close to the red side. Indiana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are leaning Republican, and West Virginia is a sure thing for Trump. As for Minnesota, St. Louis County, Lake County, and Cook County are seen as potential swing areas, and some counties Trump won in 2016 might flip.

The Central United States (23 Electoral Votes)

Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma are likely to stay Red for Trump, while the competitive state of Arizona will remain a critical battleground.

The South (155 Electoral Votes)

Donald Trump’s guard over the South looks strong with Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and Kentucky mostly falling into his column. Georgia is a swing state with Trump having a slight advantage, while Florida remains a true tossup despite Trump winning the state in 2016. North Carolina could go either way, swinging between blue and red.

East Coast (72 Electoral Votes)

Most of the East Coast, including Virginia, Maryland, DC, Delaware, New Jersey, and New York, has a clear advantage for Biden. Virginia is trending towards Democrats unless Trump can capture the Fairfax and Loudoun counties. New England, with Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Maine, is another key battleground, with Maine’s 1st district likely supporting Biden, but the 2nd district may lean towards Trump. New Hampshire remains a tough state for Democrats, as Hillary Clinton barely won by a narrow margin in the previous election.

Alaska and Hawaii (7 Electoral Votes)

Alaska may see Trump holding on to this state, although Hawaii is comfortably predicted to go to Biden.

Conclusion

While the election landscape is complex, with shifts in voter behavior and demographic changes, there are still states where Trump can secure victory. However, the overall national trend favors a Democratic win, with key areas potentially determining the final outcome. As election day approaches, we will have clearer insights into the factors shaping this unique and pivotal race.

Disclaimer: This analysis is subjective and based on current trends, but political elections are unpredictable. Stay informed and engaged as the 2020 election unfolds.