How Much Does Brexit Increase Support for Scottish Independence?

Since the Brexit referendum in 2016, the question of Scottish independence has gained new momentum. More and more, it is becoming clear that Brexit has played a significant role in increasing support for Scottish independence. This surge in support can be attributed to several key factors, including economic disparities, political polarisation, and the perceived neglect by the ruling parties.

Economic Disparities: Subsidies and Support

The narrative around Scottish independence often centres around the country’s desire for freedom from the toxic union with England. A critical point frequently raised is the financial disparity that would arise if Scotland were to leave the UK. Currently, Scotland enjoys generous subsidies per head of population from the UK Government, which the English population can only dream of. If Scotland were to become independent, it is unclear where such generous subsidies would come from.

Political Polarisation: The Impact of Brexit

One of the most significant consequences of Brexit is the further polarisation of support for Scottish independence. Polls show that the pro-independence group has repeatedly risen above the 50% mark. After the Brexit vote, only 24% of Scots supported independence, but this number has since grown significantly. The upcoming general elections in Scotland may see the Conservatives losing seats due to this shift in public opinion.

The Role of the Sewell Convention

The Sewell Convention, which governs the interaction between the UK Parliament and the Scottish Parliament, has been ignored in several instances post-Brexit. This disregard has reinforced the narrative that Westminster does not care about the wishes of the Scottish people. Events such as the refusal to grant a return visit to the First Minister of Scotland (SNP) following a state visit, and the avoidance of political engagement by the Scottish Tories, have all contributed to this perception.

Impact on Election Results and Political Dynamics

The political dynamics in Scotland after Brexit have also shifted significantly. The Conservative Party has found itself on the back foot, with Scottish Tories being seen as recruiting agents for the SNP. The dismissal of the Scottish Conservative leader, Douglas Ross, by the Tory grandees further illustrates the alienation of pro-Brexit voices and the preference for more nationalist candidates.

Imagery and Public Perception

The imagery surrounding Brexit and its implications for Scotland has been consistently negative. Politicians and policymakers in the UK have been accused of failing to understand the diverging interests of nations within the union. Scottish immigration policies, in particular, are seen as a contentious issue, with many perceiving them as being unrecognisably different from historical norms. The push for English nationalism, cloaked in the guise of sovereignty, has further fuelled the pro-independence movement.

Conclusion: The Path Forward for Scottish Independence

The future of Scottish independence remains uncertain, but the growing support among the population cannot be overlooked. Unless the UK government takes steps to address these concerns, the pro-independence movement is likely to continue gaining momentum. It is crucial for policymakers to consider the political and economic implications and work towards a stable and equitable future for all parts of the UK.