How Will Brexit Affect the Conservative Party?

With the growing realization among the public that the benefits of Brexit pale in comparison to its downsides, it is highly unlikely that the Conservative Party will retain their voter base. The age demographics of those who voted for Brexit, coupled with the party's association with it, make it a significant challenge for their longevity.

Internal Challenges

Internally, the Conservative Party experienced a 'night of the long knives' after the ERG/UKIP faction took over, effectively silencing many 'genuine' MPs. This has led to a hard-right takeover under the leadership of Boris Johnson. His hard-right government continues to make public promises about spending and public services, such as the NHS and social care, but these efforts are undermined by a decade's neglect and a potential reduction in tax revenue due to promised tax cuts and hard Brexit policies.

Political Fragmentation

The split between the extreme pro-Brexit right and the more moderate pro-European wing within the Conservative Party is evident. While Johnson promotes spending on public services and public money, the hard Brexit policies are jeopardizing these promises.

Voter Reactions and Expectations

Exacerbating the internal issues are the expectations set by the Conservative Party itself, primarily centered around economic panaceas and the reversal of austerity measures. The North and Midlands, in particular, are optimistic about economic miracles brought about by Brexit. However, if these expectations are not realized, it could lead to significant backlash against the incumbent government.

The Role of Brexit in Voter Demographics

Politically, the age demographics of the Brexit voters are a critical factor. Younger and older voters are less likely to support the Conservative Party due to their association with Brexit. This demographic shift could spell trouble for the party's future, especially in upcoming elections.

Conclusion

Given the current state of the Conservative Party and the challenges it faces both internally and in terms of voter expectations, it is unlikely that the party will fare well in the coming years. The upcoming general election in 2024 will be a crucial test, as the party must either confront and address its internal issues or face severe repercussions from a disillusioned electorate. The backdrop of global climate change adds an additional layer of complexity to these challenges.

While there is hope that the party can potentially be cleansed of the hard-line faction, the immediate future looks uncertain. The political landscape is in flux, and the Conservative Party must navigate this with caution if it hopes to remain a dominant force.

Brexit Votes by Age 2016 - Statista