Boris Johnson's Brexit Deal and Scottish Independence Referendum

Scottish nationalists are predicting a significant surge in demand for a second Scottish Independence Referendum (indyref2). According to the analysis, Boris Johnson's potential reversal of the Brexit deal may not significantly affect this increased interest. This article delves into the implications of Brexit on Scottish politics and the potential for a second independence referendum.

Sector of the Mandate and Nationalist Support

Rewriting of history with the devolution and performance of the SNP is a critical aspect of the mandate discussion. The Scottish National Party (SNP) has repeatedly surged to victory, garnering the largest majorities in modern British political history. This confirms their mandate to pursue other national interests, such as independence.

Following the 2016 Brexit referendum, the Scottish government asserted its right to hold an independence referendum. However, Westminster blocked this request, leading to significant unrest and the eventual vote in 2014. The SNP's mandate to hold a further referendum, due to a material change like Brexit, lends additional weight to their current position.

The Role of Boris Johnson in Scottish Independence

Boris Johnson and his ultra-right-wing Conservative government are seen as the best recruiting sergeant for the Scottish National Party. Their disregard for the devolved administrations in Scotland and Northern Ireland, along with Wales (excluding English retirees), has fueled nationalist sentiment. Matthew Francis, a prominent voice on Scottish politics, argues that Scotland will be an independent nation 'very soon'—not if or when, but when.

Characterizing the Demand for Indyref2

The assertion that there will be a 'huge increase' in demand for indyref2 is debated. A significant change in public opinion, particularly since Brexit, has driven this sentiment. While the 2014 referendum was heavily influenced by the promise of additional EU membership for an independent Scotland, the current movement is more complex and multi-faceted. Some, like Matthew Francis, point to historical trends, such as the 1950s support for cultural reformation and national identity, as strong indicators of the growing nationalist sentiment.

Comparing the current nationalist support to historical data paints a different picture. An independent Scotland was not a dominant movement in the 1950s, but the nationalist support has grown exponentially since the 2014 referendum. The current trend, influenced by factors like the Brexit vote and the ongoing desire for greater autonomy, indicates a strong likelihood of a successful second independence referendum.

Conclusion and Implications

The current political climate suggests that the Scottish independence movement is not merely a passing fad, but a deeply rooted and growing phenomenon. Whether Brexit itself or the government's handling of Brexit has rekindled the movement is debatable, but the underlying sentiment of seeking more control over Scottish matters appears to be a permanent feature of Scottish politics.

Even if Boris Johnson were to reverse Brexit, it is unlikely to drastically alter the trajectory of demand for indyref2. The nationalist movement in Scotland is multifaceted and driven by a range of factors, including the desire for self-determination, cultural identity, and economic autonomy. The coming years will likely see a continued push towards independence, with or without Brexit.