Boris Johnson’s Honeymoon: How Long Will It Last?

When Boris Johnson first became Prime Minister (PM), he faced a storm of challenges. He lost every single vote in Parliament and even ousted some long-serving MPs who voted with the opposition. Despite these hurdles, Johnson's majority in the Conservative Party was significant, and many believed his tenure as PM would endure. However, how long will Boris Johnson’s honeymoon last?

Current Reality and Future Prospects

Johnson's tenure as PM is contingent on his ability to implement his policies successfully. Until the next general election is called, he can continue to operate with a strong majority in the House of Commons. If his performance disappoints or if the UK Brexit negotiations falter, the electorate may turn against him and seek a change in leadership.

Positive Outlook for Johnson

Some supporters believe that Boris Johnson will be the best Prime Minister of the past 60 years. They argue that his commitment to keeping his promises and assembling a strong team around him will ensure his success. Johnson’s victory in a winter election might have given him an additional edge, but it remains to be seen how his honeymoon period will unfold.

Honeymoon Period and Public Sentiment

Harold Wilson famously pointed out that governments tend to lose popularity in the winter when households grapple with rising bills for gas and electricity. This could pose a challenge for Johnson if the economy faces additional stress during colder months.

The Role of Labour Leadership

The length of Johnson’s honeymoon largely depends on the Labour Party’s decision regarding their new leader. If the Labour Party elects another left-wing leader, it could extend Johnson’s popularity. However, this is contingent on the Labour Party’s ability to present a cohesive and compelling narrative to the public.

Post-Brexit Negotiations and Strategies

Johnson aims to ensure that Brexit is successfully completed by the end of January 2020. To bolster his honeymoon period, he plans to avoid discussions about further negotiations. However, the EU’s approach to negotiations is based on transparency, with regular updates provided by the European Commission and the European Parliament.

Johnson’s strategy involves minimizing public discourse on negotiations, hoping the public will remain unaware. However, this tactic has limitations. The European Commission will provide detailed updates to ensure transparency and maintain public trust. Meanwhile, businesses and the general public will likely rely on European Commission updates rather than Johnson and his ministers.

Conclusion

Boris Johnson’s honeymoon period is a strategic gamble, with many factors influencing its duration. While Johnson’s strong majority and optimistic outlook provide a solid foundation, external factors such as public sentiment, economic challenges, and Labour leadership choices will play pivotal roles in determining how long his honeymoon will last.