How Can We Tell if Russia is Winning or Losing the War in Ukraine?

Assessing the outcome of a complex military conflict like the Russia-Ukraine war often requires a nuanced and comprehensive analysis rather than superficial indicators. One of the critical methodological approaches involves looking at military graveyards and prisoner exchanges, among other metrics.

Military Graveyards: An Indicative Metric

When comparing military graveyards between Russia and Ukraine, it becomes evident that the conflict is taking a toll on the sides involved. In Russian graveyards, the number of graves has increased, suggesting higher casualties. In Ukrainian graveyards, the size has tripled, indicating that the war is deeply impacting the country’s population and its combatants. This disparity in the number of fallen soldiers reflects the increasing intensity and duration of the war.

Prisoner Exchanges: Signs of Looming Defeat

Another key indicator is the dynamics of prisoner exchanges. On the Russian side, there are tens of thousands of prisoners of war (POWs) from Ukraine, yet it is challenging to find even 100 willing to be exchanged back. This reality hints at the bleak prospects for the POWs remaining in Russia. In contrast, every Russian POW in Ukraine wants to be released, but the release process is lengthy and cumbersome. These facts suggest that the war is draining the energy and morale on both sides, with Russian forces particularly struggling to maintain a positive outlook.

Historical Analysis and Lessons from Previous Conflicts

Broad historical analysis can provide valuable insights into the nature of this conflict. The case of the Soviet war in Afghanistan offers a poignant example. For 10 years, the Soviets appeared to be "winning" based on battlefield dominance, but when they lost the will to fight, they withdrew, allowing Afghanistan to reclaim its sovereignty. Similarly, the United States experienced futile efforts in both Afghanistan and Vietnam, leading to significant losses in terms of both military expenditure and geopolitical influence.

In each of these conflicts, the initial advantage did not translate into a decisive victory. Instead, the prolonged nature of the wars led to domestic and international pressures that ultimately compelled the warring parties to withdraw.

Forecasting the Future: A Long and Unresolved Conflict

Given the current dynamics, it is reasonable to predict that the Russia-Ukraine conflict will continue for many years. Unlike conventional military engagements where one side surrenders, this conflict is more akin to an occupation where one side cannot be definitively defeated on the battlefield. Unless one side decides it is no longer viable to fight, the war will likely continue until either Russia withdraws or Ukraine surrenders.

Russia may persist in the conflict to maintain its geopolitical influence, even if it means enduring significant costs. The goal of "meeting objectives" through extensions of influence and control may be more important than a total military victory. Thus, Russia might claim its objectives are met while continuing to maintain control over conquered territories through pseudo-referendums and de-annexation measures.

Ukraine, on the other hand, may ultimately succumb to the pressure of prolonged warfare and internal divisions. However, a complete defeat on the battlefield has not occurred, making a definitive end to the conflict unlikely for the foreseeable future.

Conclusion

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is far from a straightforward battle. It is a complex interplay of military, political, and economic factors that are unlikely to reach a clear resolution in the near future. The war will continue until one side withdraws or becomes so exhausted that it can no longer sustain the effort. Historically, such conflicts have been protracted and often conclude with facets of the war persisting for years or even decades.