Introduction

In the world of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R.R. Martin, the Sevensong Rebellion decided the fate of numerous houses. This article explores how the realm would have been divided had the rebels not succeeded, with a particular focus on the potential futures of the Starks, Baratheons, Arryns, and Tullys. We will examine two scenarios: one where Rhaegar Targaryen succeeds and another in which King Aerys II Targaryen takes the Iron Throne.

Rhaegar Wins

North: Despite any potential loss of Ned Stark, Rhaegar would ensure the Starks retain their position as Wardens of the North. Ned’s commitment to protecting Lyanna would mean her brother’s status would be secured, albeit under the leadership of Ned or Benjen Stark if Ned perished.

Vale: If Jon Arryn managed to stay loyal to the crown, he would be retained as Warden of the Eastern Marches. This continuity honours the political acumen and diplomatic credentials Jon brings to his role. However, if Jon Arryn were to fall, either Royce or a stiffly loyal Targaryen would inherit the position. It is unlikely Rhaegar would entrust such a vital role to a newborn or a lesser noble like Lord Hardyng.

Stormlands: Lord Jon Connington would be pardoned and reinstated as Hand of the King. Stannis would also be pardoned but would remain as Lord of Storm’s End, provided he submitted to Rhaegar’s rule. His brother Renly, one of the rebel leaders, would face a drastically different fate.

Riverlands: Hoster Tully’s rebellion would be seen as an act of treason rather than a noble quest. Ned and Benjen Stark, being close to Lyanna, would face executions. Riverrun would fall to the Targaryens, and Darry would be given Riverrun. The Darrys would be appointed as Lannisters of the Riverlands, maintaining the House’s integrity.

King Aerys II Wins

North: If the Starks rebelled and lost, Ned Stark would face execution, and Benjen might reign as the King in the North. This outcome would reflect the severe punishments Rhaegar’s father was known for, emphasizing the Targaryen's commitment to maintaining order.

Vale: Jon Arryn, a key figure for the rebels, would be punished, losing his position. The Vale would submit to Targaryen rule once again. Lord Baelon might be appointed Lord of the Eyrie after George Royce, who initially bent the knee, decides to rebel again, favoring Lord Hardyng.

Stormlands: Stannis Baratheon and Renly would face severe consequences for their rebellion. Rossart, a member of the royal court, might be appointed as Lannister of the Stormlands after the Targaryens had extinguished the last Baratheons. Alternatively, Rhaegar may favor Quentin Chelsted, another royal appointee.

Riverlands: Lucerys Velaryon, a significant supporter of Aerys II, would likely secure the Riverlands. His close relationship with the Targaryens would ensure a smoother transition of power in this region.

Conclusion

The outcomes for the Starks, Baratheons, Arryns, and Tullys reveal the stark differences in governance styles between Rhaegar and Aerys II. While Rhaegar might seek to preserve the loyalty and trust of key nobles, Aerys II emphasizes strict control and retribution.